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Equity ResearchJuly 12, 2026 Agentic Commerce Winner with New Near-TermTailwinds -- Upgrade to Buy We already had a positive bias toward SHOP -- fundamentals have beenrobust and agentic commerce should be a LT positive (our view here). We areupgrading SHOP to a Buy with a $160 PT. 1) 3P data bolsters our confidencethat 2Q results will beat consensus; 2) newly announced partner programchanges should positively impact NT growth while lowering the LT S&M coststructure; and 3) we see a price increase as likely, which would be a source ofupside in 2027. Well-Positioned in Agentic Commerce.As we wrote in March, we see SHOP as uniquely positionedto become the infrastructure layer for agentic commerce and the “agent enablement” toolkit formerchants. In our view, this positions SHOP to capture incremental GMV, drive higher merchantstickiness, and expand its role upstream in discovery over time as agents intermediate more of thebuyer journey. We see agentic commerce as a modest GMV tailwind over the next several years. Restructuring Partner Incentives for Future Growth, Lower LT Expenses.SHOP announcedchanges to partner commissions starting in Aug 2026. In effect, SHOP is tying earnouts directlyto the value created on the platform. Our takeaways include: 1) partners have a greater incentiveto sign larger merchants; 2) partners will likely invest more in post-launch merchant success; 3)additional offerings like B2B, POS, and Shopify Components are more in-focus; 4) the changes forcepartners to stay focused on new logo acquisition and cross-selling rather than sitting on an annuity-like revenue stream and 5) the long-term unit economics from partner-driven deals will improve asthe commission stream is capped (See Exhibit 4). While any change brings risk, we see this as along-term positive for both growth and margins. Is a Price Increase Around the Corner?SHOP last raised prices on non-Plus SKUs in 2023 (33-34%)and on Plus plans in 2024 (25%). Since then, the company has rolled out a slew of features, mostnotably Sidekick, an AI assistant. SHOP has absorbed the costs related to Sidekick utilization. Withmore merchants using the tool and realizing value, SHOP is now positioned to raise prices. Whilemgmt has discussed the possibility without committing to a specific timeline or structure (platform-wide vs. consumption-based), we believe price action is on the horizon.An increase similar to 2023on non-Plus SKUs would be marginal in absolute dollars for a merchant but would result in a ~3-4%tailwind to our 2027 rev estimates (See Exhibit 1). More importantly, it would largely drop to thebottom line, leading to more material upside on profitability. 3P Data Suggests Robust GMV Growth in 2Q.We looked at web traffic to shop.app subdomainsand found a 94% correlation to GMV $s between 1Q23-1Q26. Assuming continued pressure on GMVper visit (-32% y/y on avg in 2025) and a 1.5% q/q decline in-line with historical seasonality, we seeroom for material upside to consensus expectations for GMV growth of 27% y/y (See Exhibit 3). Samad Samana * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-4649 | ssamana@jefferies.comJeremy Sahler, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 284-2475 | jsahler@jefferies.com The Long View: Shopify Investment Thesis •Our model functions on GMV growth rather than merchant count, which wethink is a better way to project Shopify’s growth opportunity•We estimate the Merchant Solutions GMV take rate will expand by a fewbps per year, sustaining healthy Merchant Solutions revenue growth evenif GMV growth slows Downside Scenario,$135, +10% Upside Scenario,$180, +46% Base Case,$160, +30% •The company delivers low-to-mid-twenties %revenue growth for 2026-2027 and high-teensgrowth in 2028•Op margin continues to expand in 2026 and2027•Shopify implements price increases on itssubscription tiers at a moderate cadence (~3-4years) with no increase to churn•Shopify takes market share, measured as GMV$ on the platform as a % of total retail e-commerce sales (ex-global e-commerce giantssuch as Amazon)•The MS GMV take rate modestly increaseseach year due to merchant adoption of existingofferings incl. SFN•Price target based on DCF •The company delivers low-teens or single-digitrevenue growth for 2026-2028•Op margin rises slower than expected over themedium term due to rising costs related togrowth investments•Shopify implements price increases on itssubscriptiontiers at a slower pace thanexpected or increases drive increased churn•Shopify fails to attract enough larger merchantsto Shopify Plus•The GMV take rate plateaus or declines as newand existing merchants do not adopt MerchantsSolutions and Shopify fails to introduce newservices that can monetize GMV•Price target based on DCF •The company delivers 20%+ revenue growth for2026-2028•Margins expand more quickly than expected•Shopify implements price increases on itssubscription tiers at a faster pace and increaseby more than expected•Traction with larger merchants for Shopify Plusdrives an