韩国经济展望

Korea Economic Outlook Growth Rebounds to 2% Amid Sectoral Imbalance This report is the English version of the “Korea Economic Outlook” published onMarch 6,2026. Please contact the Research Department at the email address below if you have anyquestions regarding the contents or would like torequest permission in advance forreproducing or copying the contents of this report for commercial purposes. Please credit the source when quoting, reproducing, or copying the contents of thisreport for non-commercial purposes. Research Department, Business Cycle Team, Bank of Koreaecontrend@bok.or.kr Contents Executive Summary Macroeconomic Conditions and Outlook 2.Macroeconomic Outlook for Korea20 Economic GrowthCurrent AccountPricesEmployment20303234 Key Risks to the OutlookDistribution of Growth Projections by Market ParticipantsScenario Analysis373738 < FYI >AI Technology Advances and Semiconductor OutlookConsumption Momentum Indicator Adjusted for Business DayEffectsandWeather Conditions422 Executive Summary The Korean economy is projected to expand by 2.0% in 2026, underpinned by the strengthenedsemiconductor cycle upturn and astronger-than-expected global economic backdrop, despitethe impact of U.S. tariffs and a sluggish recovery in construction investment. CPI inflation is expected at 2.2%, slightly above the previous forecast, as cost increases incertain items, such aselectronic devices and insurance premiums, have added to inflationarypressures, while demand-side pressures remain subdued. ECONOMIC CONDITIONS The global economy is expected to sustain solid growth in the low 3% range,supported by robustAI-related investment and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies in major economies;however, uncertainty surrounding the outlook is assessed to have increased following the courtruling invalidating U.S. reciprocal tariffs. •The United States is projected to post robust growth, underpinned by expanding AI-relatedinvestment and policy support, including the OBBBA. Theeuro areais expected to maintain modestgrowth, supported by accommodative financial conditions and fiscal expansion, despite constraintsfrom trade conditions including U.S. tariffs. Meanwhile,China’s growth is expected to be lower than2025due to persistent domestic demand weakness, including the real estate market downturn, andslower export growth,although export market diversification and domestic stimulus measures areprojected to partially offset these headwinds. •Global trade growthis expected to moderate somewhat from2025as trade uncertainty persists,although robust AI-related trade and trade diversification efforts–such as the EU-India FTA–areexpected to limit the extent of the slowdown. Theglobal semiconductor industrycontinues to seerapid memory-led gains as AI model deployment expands from training to inference. However, bothupside risks–such as the proliferation of physical AI–and downside risks–including an AIinvestment correction and U.S. tariff imposition–remain significant. •Global oil prices(Brent crude) have been rising considerably recently amid heightened militarytensions between the U.S. and Iran, but are projected to decline gradually over the course of the yearas excess supply conditions persist. On the domestic front, income conditions are improving on the back of strong IT corporate earningsand rising stock prices, and economic sentiment* remains favorable. However, the non-IT sectorcontinues to underperform, and FX and financial market volatility remain latent risk factors. * Composite Consumer Sentiment Index: Jan.-Apr.2025 avg. 93.2 → May.101.7 → Aug.111.2→ Nov.112.3 →Feb.2026 112.1 •Nominal wage growthis expected to improve gradually, driven in part by strong IT corporateperformance. •Corporate bond rateshave risen, reflecting diminished expectations for rate cuts and markettightness.The won to U.S. dollar exchange ratehas declined to the mid-1,400 level, but hasexhibited heightened volatility recently, driven by overseas securities investment by residents and co-movement with the yen.Housing priceshave continued to rise, primarily in the Seoul metropolitanarea, but the pace of increase has moderated recently owing to government measures. U.S. Tariff Policy: Status and Assumptions [Status] The U.S. reciprocal tariffs, including fentanyl tariffs, have been invalidated; instead, atemporary 15% global tariff is imposed for up to 150 days. The product scope is broadly in linewith the former reciprocal tariffs. However, product-specific tariffs imposed on automobiles,steel, etc. remain in effect.* *A 10% tariff was imposed on February 24 (local time), and procedures are currently underway to raise it to 15% [Tariff Changes] The U.S. average tariff rate on Korea remains unchanged, while the globalaverage tariff rate has declined slightly.* *Average tariff rates (based on 2024 U.S. import values):[Global]Pre-ruling 13.3%→ Post-ruling 11.6%(-1.7%p)[Korea]13.6% →13.6%(unchanged) •The decline is co