2025年第二季度天然气市场报告

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the full spectrum of energyissues including oil, gas and coal supply anddemand, renewable energy technologies,electricity markets, energy efficiency, access toenergy, demand side management and muchmore. Through its work, the IEA advocates SpainSwedenSwitzerland IEAMember countries:Australia AustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermany TheEuropean Commissionalso participates in the work This publication and any map included herein arewithout prejudice to the status of or sovereigntyover any territory, to the delimitation of IEAAssociation countries: ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesia Abstract Global natural gas demand continued to expand through the2024/25 heating season, with growth primarily driven by Europe andNorth America. Underground storage facilities and reservemechanisms provided crucial flexibility to the gas system and Beyond the growing complexity of gas supply security both in theshort and long term, the decarbonisation of gas and the broaderenergy system will require the deployment and scaling up of low- Low gas storage levels and reduced piped gas exports from Russiato the European Union are expected to keep market fundamentalstight. Supported by higher storage injection needs, Europe’s LNGimports are forecast to increase in 2025 to near their all-time highs. With the global gas balance remaining fragile in an increasinglycomplex geopolitical context, responsible producers and consumersneed to work together to reinforce efforts to ensure reliable gassupplies. This will be among the topics addressed at the Table of contents Executive summary........................................................................................................................ 5Gas market update....................................................................................................................... 10Low-emissions gases................................................................................................................... 45 Executive summary Global gas demand growth is expected to slow in 2025 amid macroeconomic uncertainties internationalSummit on the Future of Energy Security,inpartnership with the UK government. The Summit will address Following the gas supply shock of 2022/23, natural gas demandreturned to structural growth in 2024 andcontinued to expandthrough the 2024/25 heating season1. Growth was primarilyconcentrated in Europe and North America, with weatherconditions, including lower temperatures, leading to stronger gas Europe and North America led demand growth through the2024/25 winter season while Asian markets slowed Natural gas demand patterns varied significantlyacross key gasmarkets, largely driven by weather conditions. Preliminary dataindicate thatnatural gas consumption increased by 1.8%, or justbelow 35 billion cubic metres (bcm), year-on-year (y-o-y) through the Tighter market fundamentals put upward pressure on gaspricesacross all key markets, whilegeopolitical tensionshavealso continued to fuel price volatility. Below-average growth inglobal LNG output together and lower piped gas exports from the InEurope, gas consumption increased by nearly 10% y-o-y as lower renewable electricity output supported higher gas burn in the powersector. Periods of low wind power generation highlighted the key rolegas-fired power plants can play in ensuring electricity supply security Globalgas demandgrowth is expected to slow to around 1.5% in2025 due to a combination of initially tight market conditions andheightened macroeconomic uncertainties. Theglobal gas balanceremains fragilein an increasingly complex geopolitical context, and in energy markets increasingly dominated by variable renewables. InNorth America, a colder winter pushed natural gas consumption to 2% y-o-y in the November 2024-February 2025 period. Milderweather in northern China, together with weaker macroeconomicperformance and high LNG spot prices, weighed on gas demandexpansion in Asia. InEurasia, natural gas consumption declined by Supply fundamentals are expected to remain tight in 2025, Global LNG supplygrew by 2% (or 6 bcm) y-o-y through the2024/25 heating season. This relatively small increase was largelysupported by the Plaquemines LNG facility in Louisiana, whichstarted operations in late 2024 and alone accounted for almost halfof incremental LNG supply through the winter. LNG supply growth isforecast to accelerate to 5%, or 27 bcm, in 2025 amid the expectedstarts and ramping up of several large LNG projects.NorthAmericais expected to account for about 85% of globalincremental LNG supply in 2025. This includes Phase 1 of thePlaquemines LNG project, the Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion,and LNG Canada.AfricaandAsiaare also expected to contributeto LNG supply growth in 2025.Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 projectis Natural gas storage and reserve mechanisms played a keyrole in ensuring stable gas supply over the 2