广州写字楼市场报告2025年第二季度

Tepid Recovery with Escalating Supply-Demand DisequilibriumOverview and OutlookIn Q2 2025, Guangzhou’s Grade-Aoffice market exhibited a recoverymarked by “strong supply growthpaired with a moderate demandrebound.” The quarter’s sole newsupply, Taiping Financial Tower, addedapproximately 83,000 sqm to themarket. Net absorption area climbedto 41,643 sqm, reflecting a notableimprovement from the previousquarter. However, the new supplyoutstripped demand recovery, pushingthe vacancy rate up by 0.3 percentagepoints to 15.0%, while average rentsslipped 2.5% to RMB 124.5 per sqm permonth.From a demand standpoint, theTMT sector (43.9%), professionalservices (26.7%), and financial services(9.1%) emerged as the top three driversof leasing activity. TMT’s dominancestemmed from robust requirements ine-commerce operations, data platformdevelopment, and digital securitysolutions. Professional services heldsteady in second place, bolsteredby resilient education and trainingsector alongside a recovering legalservice sector. Financial servicesregained third place, fueled by renewedinterest in life insurance and fundmanagement. On the transactionfront, relocation demand fell to 34.3%(with 64.3% classified as downgradedrelocations), signaling intensifiedcorporate cost pressure. Meanwhile,new leases and expansions—spurredby growth in biomedicine and TMT—together made up 44.5% of demand,highlighting counter-cyclical growthmomentum in certain sectors. TheFig 2: Guangzhou office development pipeline, 2025-2027202520262027Fig 1: Guangzhou Grade-A office market reference index[1]2025Q2New supply83,0002025Q2Net Absorption41,643sqm2025Q2124.5RMB/sqm/monthQoQ change:Outlook (Q3 2025) :Outlook (Q3 2025) :QoQ change:sqmOutlook (Q3 2025) :QoQ change: investment market saw a standouten-bloc transaction: Xinxuan acquiredBuildings G and E in Baiyun LakeTechnology Industrial Park for roughlyRMB 200 million, underscoring self-use demand as the key trend in thenear-term office investment market.Looking to Q3, despite cyclical andphased recovery on the demand side,the market faces mounting pressure onvacancy rates, with over 200,000 sqmof new supply slated to launch. Therental downward trajectory is expectedto continue. As the effectivenessof price cuts diminishes, landlordsmay lean more heavily on a varietyof incentive packages to stimulatedemand.‘000 sqmNote: Projected supply in 2025 includes projects already on the marketRent2.5% Zhujiang New TownGuangzhou South StationBaietanPazhouFinancial City05001,0001,5002,000Source: Knight Frank ResearchSource: Knight Frank Research[1] Rent refers to average effective rent2025Q2Vacancy rate15.0%Outlook (Q3 2025) :0.3%QoQ change: Rents Continue to Face Pressure Amid Mild RecoveryRental LevelIn Q2 2025, Guangzhou’s Grade-Aoffice market remained on a downwardtrajectory, with average rentsdeclining 2.5% QoQ to RMB 124.5per sqm per month. This marks the16th consecutive quarter of marketadjustment. While the rate of declinehas eased compared to Q1, persistentsupply-demand imbalances continuedto drive significant leasing pressure,especially in submarkets withsignificant ageing inventory, whereintensified competition constrainedrental recovery.Breaking down by submarket,rental declines were observed acrossall submarkets. Yuexiu and TianheNorth took the hardest hits, postingquarter-on-quarter drops of 5.7% and4.6%, respectively. Aging buildingstock has weakened landlords’leverage, triggering stronger leasingrestructuring willingness of tenants.To lure new occupants and narrow thegap with emerging hubs like FinancialDistrict, landlords adopted comboincentives: flexible rental structures,fit-out subsidies, and extended rent-free periods—effectively bridgingthe implicit cost differential to retaintenants. Meanwhile, Zhujiang NewTown, Pazhou, and the FinancialCity saw milder dips, with rentTable 1: Major Guangzhou Grade-A office sub-market indicators, Q2 2025SubmarketRMB/sqm/mthTianhe North116.7Zhujiang New Town141.5Yuexiu100.8Pazhou112.6Financial City95.5 Fig 3: Guangzhou Grade-A office rental trendQ 1Q2Q3Q4Q 1Q2Q3Q4Q 1Q2Q3Q4Q 1Q2Q3Q4Q 1Q2Q320142015201620172018RentRental %changes (QoQ)RMB/sqm/day3.8↓4.6%4.7↓1.2%3.3↓5.7%3.7↓1.5%3.1↓1.9%reductions staying under 2%. Afteraggressive repricing in Q1, theirlocational advantages supportedmarginal demand improvement.The decelerating declines signal thatrents are approaching tenants’ pricingthresholds, extending the timeline forany adjustment-driven upside.Looking to Q3 2025, the GuangzhouGrade-A office market is bracing for a Source: Knight Frank ResearchVacancyRateVacancy ratepercentage change(QoQ)7.5%↓0.8%12.4%↑0.5%8.5%↓0.3%23.9%↓0.7%47.7%↑4.3%hefty influx of over 200,000 sqm of newsupply. Combined with the destockingpressure from existing inventory, thisdownward trend of citywide rent isset to deepen, with declines likely toremain steady or steepen further. Table 2: Major Guangzhou Grade-A office leasing transactions, Q2 2025DistrictBuildingFinancial districtHany