日本洞察：美银策略月报——在人工智能、硬件和实物资产时代重新评估日本股市

Reversal in merits of industrial structure: Hardware andphysical assets nowhold an advantage Investment StrategyJapan Although guidance this results season was conservative, in such years guidance tends torise in a stepwise fashion as 1Q and 2Q results are released. However, the risk is thatinflation pushes up interest rates, but in the US, this is in line with stronger-than-expected economic data. Domestic interest rates have risen on concerns about fiscaldeterioration, and 10y JGB yields have temporarily risen to 2.8%, but the TOPIX earningsyield is c.6%. On the other hand, a positive scenario is that rising US long-term interestrates force President Trump to soften his stance, leading to the reopening of the Straitof Hormuz. Tokyo ResearchBofAS Japan Masashi Akutsu>>StrategistBofAS Japan+81 3 6225 7754masashi.akutsu@bofa.comSee Team Page for List of Analysts It is also important to note that the medium-term attractiveness of Japanese equities isincreasing. Japanese companies provide semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SPE),components and materials that are essential to the AI supply chain. In addition, supplychains and production facilities are being rebuilt globally to mitigate geopolitical threats,and wealth is concentrated in these areas. Now is the time to reassess Japan's industrialstructure, which has strengths in hardware and physical assets that are easy to pass onto prices. Previous catalysts, such as the shift to an inflationary economy and theacceleration of corporate reform, are also alive and well. InitialAI rally has passed, but uptrend likely to continueFrom astock-selection perspective, we believe it is time to focus on AI stocks while diversifying across sectors. The initial rally in AI market has passed, but the uptrend islikely to continue. If the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, high-beta AI stocks have upsidepotential in a phase where only expectations are rising, and stocks that benefit fromfundamentals have upside potential after the Strait is actually reopened. As a basic view,we believe sectors that were the main preference of investors before the closure of theStrait of Hormuz should be included in portfolios. If gradual yen appreciation emerges,there may be opportunities to re-evaluate consumer-related sectors that havehistorically been disadvantaged. Our economists, FX/rates strategists and sector analystsdiscuss their outlooks In this report, our economists, forex/rates strategists and sector analysts discuss theirrespective outlooks. Our sector analysts have recommended stocks to watch, andselected 10 stocks that also align with the top-down perspective. Trading ideas and investmentstrategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 95 to 101. Analyst Certification on page 81. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 60. Contents BofA's 10 highlighted names (from top-down and bottom-up approaches) We selected 10 stocks that match our top-down view as strategists from among thestocks selected by analysts from a bottom-up perspective. We assume an investmentperiod of the next three months. Our selection focuses on component and materialscompanies and companies that are transforming into AI stocks, in light of thebroadening scope of the AI market. For domestic demand sectors, we selected stockswith global exposure and high earnings defensiveness, given the closure of the Strait ofHormuz. (Chief Japan Equity Strategist Masashi Akutsu is responsible for the content). Kirin Holdings (2503): 1Q business profit beat consensus. We believe the company canabsorb the impact of the Middle East conflict through cost reductions and price hikes,which is reassuring. Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (4186): Earnings momentum remains strong, supported by AI-related demand. 1Q results suggest that the FY27/12 medium-term target for operatingprofit could be achieved as early as this fiscal year. An upward revision in 2Q, as well asa significant upward revision to the medium-term targets thereafter, is likely to comeinto focus. With its expanding market capitalization, the stock appears to have becomemore widely favored by overseas investors. Maruwa (5344): We take into ac