升级为买入：准备迎接AI网络超级周期

Marvell Technology (MRVL US) Upgradeto Buy:Readyto ridethe Al-networking super-cycle Optical interconnect and CXLrevenue opportunitystill notpriced in despite share price more than doubling since April 300.0085.00SHARE PRICE (USD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE196.33+52.8%(as of 22 May 2026)MARKET DATA Opticalrevenueopportunity,coupledwithagenticAlCPUdemand, turns us bullish with street-high EPS estimates Upgradeto Buy (from Hold); raiseTPto a street-highUSD300(fromUSD85)aswerollforwardourvaluationtoFY28e Optical growth and CXL (compute express link) TAM still undervalued: DespiteMarvell share price already rebounding +124%since30 March (vs SOX +71%)and nomajor upside surprises to its upcoming 1QFY27 earnings likely, we believe therevenue growth from optical interconnect is still being underestimated by the market,whichwillleadtoupsideto consensusforecastsoverthenexttwoyears.Inadditionupside in the CXL TAM. Hence, we increase our TP and upgrade to Buy. Marvell a key beneficiary of optical transceivers'multi-year super-cycle: As Alclusters expand from single racks to multi-rack Al factories,traditional copper wiring ishitting physical limits in reach and bandwidth, driving a structural shift toward opticalinterconnects.Marvelliscapitalisingonthisthroughitsdominantpositionin8ooGand1.6T Digital Signal Processors (DSPs), which are the"brains'inside these high-speedoptical modules. As highlighted in our 14 May China Technology note, we expect theTAM for optical transceivers to grow 70% y-0-y in 2027. Marvell has a majority marketshareinDSPs,whichhavea1:1attachratetooptical transceivers,andwebelieve itshould be able to grow at least on a par with the industry. We revise our opticalinterconnect revenue for FY27e up to USD5.2bn,10% higher than consensus andFY28e revenuetoUSD8.8bn,37%higherthanconsensus. Upside in CXL from agentic AI CPU demand & long-term ASIC upside in FY29:We expect CXLdemand upsideas it is a viablesolution to scalememory capacityamid memory shortages from agentic AI CPU demand, and can drive upside to'XPUattach'within custom silicon. In addition, as per news reports (eg Reuters, 19 April)Marvell might developa new Google TPU and an MPU.We believe this could havesignificantupside toFY29ASICrevenue estimates.OurFY28/FY29ASIC revenueestimatesare16%/24%higherthanconsensus Frank LeeGlobal Head of Tech Hardware&Semi ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedfrank.lee@hsbc.com.hk+85229966916 Pulkit Aggarwal*AssociateBangalore Upgrade to Buy (from Hold) with revised TP of USD300 (from USD85) as we rollforwardtoFY28e:We raiseourFY27e/FY28eEPSby21%/61%toUSD4.07/USD7.12duetoourbullishoptical interconnect revenueestimates,and CXLportfolio-driven ASIC revenue estimates. We introduce our FY29 estimates in thisnote.We raise our TPto USD300 (from USD85)applying our FY28 target PE of42x(rolled forward fromFY27e of 26x)to ourFY28eEPS of USD7.12.With c53% impliedupside, we upgrade to Buy. We believe the optical interconnect strength and CXLrevenue opportunity remain undervalued and can drive upside earnings surprises. *Employedbyanon-USaffliateofHSBC Securities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifedpursuanttoFINRAregulations HSBC Funding the Future Survey Sentiment, Al and Private Credit Click to view Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com potential since the beginning of the year, we had the view that the earnings upside from theoptical interconnect segment was not big enoughto drive re-rating,especiallywith the lack ofsupply-side visibility on the ASiC business. traditional copper wiring is hitting physical limits in reach and bandwidth, driving a structural shifttoward optical interconnects. Marvell is capitalising on this through its dominant position in 800G(70%market share) and 1.6T (50% market share) Digital Signal Processors (DSPs), which aretransceivers to grow 70% y-0-y in 2027 and Marvell's DSP revenue to grow in line with theindustry, if not faster than it. Our revised optical interconnect revenue estimates for FY27/FY28imply 70%/70% y-0-y growth, much higher than consensus of 55%/36% y-0-y growth. We also expect that in the custom silicon business, CXL switches can drive near-term growth asthey could potentiallybecomea sought-aftersolutionto scalememory bandwidth during theDRAM shortage fuelled by the rise of agentic Al. We also think the longer-term revenuepotential for Marvell's ASIC business is improving on the back of its recent NVIDIA partnershipas well as multiple news reports around winning Google TPU business in 2028. Hence, ourFY28/FY29ASICrevenueestimatesarenow16%/24%higherthanconsensus. Therefore,despite the stock price being up 124% since 30 March (vs SOX +71%)-when theNViDIA partnership was an