由技术升级/供应短缺驱动的全球AI网络超级周期

GlobalAlnetworkingsupercycledrivenbytechupgrade/supplyshortage ResearchAnalysts AccumulatemarketleadersInnoLight,YOFC,TFCandT&S China Technology Webelievetheglobal Alnetworkingsupercyclewill continuein2026F,andevenextendinto2027F,drivenbymultipletechnologyupgraderoadmaps(i.e.SiliconPhotonics[SiPh],Co-packageoptics[CPO],OpticalCircuitSwitch[OCS],ActiveElectronicCable[AEC],HollowCoreFiber [HCF])andsupplyshortage(i.e.optical laserchip/material)Weestimate800G/1.6Ttransceivershipmentswillgrowfrom20mn/2.5mnunitsin2025Fto43mn/20mnunitsin2026F,withSiPhtransceiversgaining50~70%marketshare,andexpectInnoLight(30o308CH,Buy,oursectortoppick)tocontinuetodominatethehigh-endmarket.Owingto likelymoreaggressivebundling sales strategyfromglobal Alleaders,CPOmigrationshouldacceleratefrom2026 (fromalowbase),andwethinkTFC (300394 CH, Buy)andT&S (300570 CH,Buy)willikelybekeybeneficiaries in theglobal CPOvaluechain.WeupgradeYOFC (6869HK)toBuyfromNeutralasthecompany'sAiDCbusinessenjoysbuoyantdemandwhilethetelecommarketstabilizes. Bing Duan-NIHKbing.duan1@nomura.com+85222522141 EthanZhang-NIHKethan.zhang@nomura.com+85222522157 Keythemes and analysis inthisAnchorReport include: :DetaileddiscussiononglobalhyperscaleAlplayers'networkingroadmapsfor.Demand-supplyanalysisonkey segments,includingoptical transceivers andCPO.UpgradeYOFCtoBuyandupdatefinancialsforInnoLight,TFC,andT&S Production Complete: 2026-01-09 16:22 UTC Global Al networking supercycle EQUITY:TECHNOLOGY What to expect in 2026F (and 2027F onwards) ResearchAnalysts China Technology Upgrade YOFC to Buy; maintain Buy on InnoLight, TFC,andShenzhenT&S BingDuan-NIHKbing.duan1@nomura.com+85222522141 Alnetworking:solid demand through 2026-2027F and accelerated tech migration tounderpindominantplayers'growth EthanZhang-NIHKethan.zhang@nomura.com+85222522157 WebelievetheAl infra investmentupcyclefromglobal hyperscaleAl cloudcompanieswillcontinue in 2026F-27F, led by the intensive competition for large language model (LLM)trainingand inference.GPUandASiCplayersarestrivingtogainmoremarketshareinthis LLM environment, and their shortened technology upgrade cycle will accelerateproduct and technology innovation in the Al networking segment, in our view.Wecopper cables will play an increasingly significant role in Al data centers, andleadingplayersintheAlnetworkingsegmentwillbenefitfromtheacceleratedinnovationcycleas well as an enlarged TAM (total addressablemarket)in scale-up,scale-outand scale-across networks.Meanwhile,wethink componentshortageswill persistin2026F,dueto buoyant demand andhighertech barriers,and this willbenefit dominantplayers with potential price andmargin uptick in theglobal Al networking segment. Optical transceivers:1.6T transceiverand SiPh migrationare thekey drivers in2026;NPO/CPO start commercialization;optical chipshortage iskey towatch Driven byglobal Al leaders'buoyant demandfor high-speed optical transceivers,as wellaspersistent component shortages(i.e.,optical chips),webelievetheproductupcyclewillcontinue in 2026Fand likely extend into2027F.Meanwhile,product innovation in theopticaltransceivermarketisaccelerating,andfuturetechnologytrendsincludingsiliconphotonics(SiPh),LPO/LRO,andNPO/CPOprimarilytargethigherperformance,lowerenergy consumption and costs.Webelieve1.6T upgradeand SiPh migrationarethekey drivers in2026F,anddominantplayers such asZhongjiInnoLight(300308CH,Buy)will continuetodominate thehigh-end market, thanks to its strong R&Dandproductionpower,as well aseffective supply chainmanagement.Weestimate800G/1.6Ttransceivershipmentswillgrowfrom20mn/2.5mnunitsin2025Fto43mn/20mnunits in2026F,whileSiPhtransceiverswillgain50-60%/60-70%share inthe800G/1.6Tsegmentsin2026F.WethinkNPO/CPOtechnologieswillcontinuetoimprove, but yet to becomemainstream solutions over the next 2-3 years in the scale-outnetwork.Meanwhile,wethink investors needtobe mindful if leading CPO solutionproviders use bundled sales strategies fortheir CPO switch products,whichcouldaccelerate adoption rates in scale-out network in the medium-term,while we believe thereare more CPO use cases in the scale-up network in the long-term.To address the opticalchip(EML,CWandVcsel)shortage,wenoteChineseplayers i.e.YuanjieTechnology(688498CH,Notrated; aCWlasermaker),SourcePhotonics(unlisted;anEMLchipmaker)areproactivelytapping intothis segment which is currently dominatedbyglobal players.While these new entrants could helpto ease the component shortageissue,webelievecompetitioninthe global market,which is likelyto intensify,is alsoworth monitoring. High-speed copper:replaced by optics? Still has significant room to grow in scaleupnetworks We notethere is a growing narrative inthe capital market that optical communication willreplacetraditional copper-basedconnections.However,wethink copperwill continuetoplayanimportantroleinscale-upandpartiallyscale-outnetworks,givenitsspeedandefficiencyadvantages,whicharecrucialforprocessinglarge-scaleAltasks.Despitetransmission limits,coppercabl