全球AI网络超级周期：由技术升级与供应短缺双轮驱动

GlobalAlnetworkingsupercycledrivenbytechupgrade/supplyshortage Research Analysts AccumulatemarketleadersInnoLight,YOFC,TFCandT&S China Technology We believe the global Al networking supercycle will continue in 2026F, and even extendinto 2027F, driven by multiple technology upgrade roadmaps (i.e, Silicon Photonics[SiPh], Co-package optics [CPO], Optical Circuit Switch [OCS], Active Electronic Cable[AEC], Hollow Core Fiber [HCF]) and supply shortage (i.e, optical laser chip/material).We estimate 800G/1.6T transceiver shipments will grow from 20mn/2.5mn units in2025F to 43mn/20mn units in 2026F, with SiPh transceivers gaining 50~70% marketshare, and expect InnoLight (300308 CH, Buy, our sector top pick) to continue tofrom global Al leaders, CPO migration should accelerate from 2026 (from a low base),and we think TFC (300394 CH, Buy) and T&S (300570 CH, Buy) will likely be keybeneficiaries in the global CPO value chain, We upgrade YOFC (6869 HK) to Buyfrom Neutral as the company's AIDC business enjoys buoyant demand while thetelecom market stabilizes. Bing Duan - NIHKbing.duan1@nomura.com+85222522141 Ethan Zhang - NIHKethan.zhang@nomura.com+852 2252 2157 Key themes and analysis in this Anchor Report include Detailed discussion on global hyperscale Al players' networking roadmaps forscale-up and scale-out networks, including optics, copper and networking switches• Demand-supply analysis on key segments, including optical transceivers and CPO• Upgrade YOFC to Buy and update financials for InnoLight, TFC, and T&S. Production Complete: 2026-01-09 16:22 UTC GlobalAlnetworkingsupercycle Whattoexpectin2026F(and2027Fonwards) Research Analysts China Technology Upgrade YOFC to Buy; maintain Buy on InnoLight, TFC,and Shenzhen T&S Bing Duan - NIHKbing.duan1@nomura.com+852 2252 2141 Al networking: solid demand through 2026-2027F and accelerated tech migration to Ethan Zhang - NIHKethan.zhang@nomura.com+852 2252 2157 continue in 2026F-27F, led by the intensive competition for large language model (LLM)training and inference. GPU and ASIC players are striving to gain more market share inproduct and technology innovation in the Al networking segment, in our view. Webelieve Al networking solutions such as switches, optical cable / transceivers, andcopper cables will play an increasingly significant role in Al data centers, andleading players in the Al networking segment will benefit from the accelerated innovationcycle as well as an enlarged TAM (total addressable market) in scale-up, scale-outand scale-across networks. Meanwhile, we think component shortages willpersist in2026F, due to buoyant demand and higher tech barriers, and this will benefit dominant continue in 2026F and likely extend into 2027F, Meanwhile, product innovation in thephotonics (SiPh), LPO/LRO, and NPO/CPO primarily target higher performance, lowerenergy consumption and costs. We believe 1.6T upgrade and SiPh migration are thekey drivers in 2026F, and dominant players such as Zhongji InnoLight (300308 CH,Buy) will continue to dominate the high-end market, thanks to its strong R&D andproduction power, as well as effective supply chain management, We estimate 800G/1.6Ttransceiver shipments will grow from 20mn/2.5mn units in 2025F to 43mn/20mnunits in 2026F, while SiPh transceivers will gain 50-60%/60-70% share in the800G/1.6T segments in 2026F, We think NPO/CPO technologies will continue tonetwork. Meanwhile, we think investors need to be mindful if leading CPO solutionproviders use bundled sales strategies for their CPO switch products, which couldaccelerate adoption rates in scale-out network in the medium-term, while we believe there(688498 CH, Not rated; a CW laser maker), Source Photonics (unlisted; an EMLworth monitoring. High-speed copper: replaced by optics? Still has significant room to grow in scale-up networks We note there is a growing narrative in the capital market that optical communication willreplace traditional copper-based connections, However, we think copper will continue toplay an important role in scale-up and partially scale-out networks, given its speed andefficiency advantages, which are crucial for processing large-scale Al tasks. Despitetransmission limits, copper cables have cost advantages vs optics, and certain types ofcopper products, i.e., AEC (Active Electronic Cable), can extend the reach to as long as10 meters. According to market research firm Light Counting, the sales of high-speed cables could double over the next five years, reaching USD2.8bn by 2028E. Nvidia(NVDA US, Not rated) is an early adopter of DAC (Direct Attach Cable) in the BlackwellNVL72 system, and the company will likely continue to use copper cables in theupcoming Rubin platform in 2026. Other large Al customers such as Amazon AWS(AMZN US, Not rated), Meta (META US, Not rated) and Microsoft (MSFT US, Not rated)have also been using copper cables in their AIDC projects. In the copper cable supplychain, the key players include Amphenol