人形机器人进展；太空和半导体领域带来额外增长；买入评级

RatingBuy 22 May 2026DateForecast Change Company Harmonic Drive JapanJapan ReutersBloomberg6324.T6324 JP Machinery Humanoid robot progressing; additionalgrowth from space and semis; Buy Valuation & Risks Iris Zheng, CFAResearch Analyst Harmonic Drive Systems (HDS) reported 4Q FY3/26 (3M ending March 2026) resultsafter market close on 13 May, and hosted an analyst call on the morning of 21 May.This followed a FY guidance upgrade announcement on 24 April. Key changes We reiterate our Buy recommendation on HDS. While HDS's share price has risenover 70% since our upgrade in February, outperforming the Nikkei index that rose7% during the same period, we anticipate further upside driven by favorablerevenue opportunities across humanoid robots, space, and semiconductors.These opportunities should lead to increased capacity utilization and significantprofit growth. For humanoid robots, HDS is expanding into actuators, whichpresents a 3x average selling price (ASP) opportunity compared to reducersalone. We believe HDS is a key reducer supplier for humanoid robots outside ofChina. We see upside and forecast ¥4.2bn in humanoid robot revenue (6% of 4,840 to 8,500↑75.6% Source: Deutsche Bank Humanoid robot: Expanding to actuators from just reducers; Upside to currenttarget HDS achieved ¥1.9bn revenue from humanoid robots in FY25.Management guidesfor ¥2.3bn revenue for FY26E, which we consideroverly conservative;we forecast¥4.2bn for FY26E. We note that HDS mentioned ¥2.7bn orders received in FY25 inFebruary 2026, an upgrade from ¥2.5bn as of November 2025. Moreover,management guides for ¥7.1bn and ¥13.3bn revenue for FY28E and FY30E, and HDS is engaging with various humanoid robot customers in the US and Japan.Unlike with screws, our channel checks suggest thatreducer companies have not 22 May 2026Machinery strain wave reducers includeHDSandNidecin Japan (Nidec supplies motors andis also pursuing reducer supply),Sling,Leaderdrive, andKedaliin China, andSchaefflerin Germany (Schaeffler, strong in bearings and screws, is also seekingto supply reducers)—this list is not exhaustive. Among reducer suppliers, we believeHDS holds a clear advantagedue to itsindustry-leading expertise in reducer manufacturing and its diversified productionfootprint across Japan, the US, and Germany, which mitigates geopolitical risk. Weanticipate that global policymakers will gradually become more aware of supplychain reliance on Chinese suppliers. This could createopportunities for non- In addition to reducers, HDS isdeveloping actuators to enhance value-add; weestimate that theaverage selling price (ASP) of an actuator is approximately 3xthat of a reducer. The company is currently fielding interest from humanoid robot Managementanticipates pricing pressure with increased volume,but hasincorporated this into their projections and expects to maintain solid profit margins. HDS aims toincrease its production capacity in the USto 10,000-15,000 units permonth by the end of 2026, up from the current 8,000-9,000 units. After posting ¥1.9bn (RMB90mn), representing 3% of group revenue, in FY3/26,weforecast humanoid robot revenue to more than double to ¥4.2bn (RMB181mn), or6% of group revenue, for FY3/27E, and ¥9bn (RMB380mn), or 11% of grouprevenue, for FY3/28E. We consider this forecast undemanding when compared toour humanoid robot revenue estimate for its Chinese reducer peer,Leaderdrive, In our SOTP valuation, weraise our valuation for the humanoid robot componentbusiness to RMB18.5bn/¥425bn, or close to ¥4,500 per share, for HDS(Figure 1 and Figure 2). This higher valuation is driven by the addition of actuator sales andthe roll-forward of the valuation by one year. Our SOTP valuation assumes 1mn unitsof humanoid robots globally by 2030E, with HDS capturing a 15% market share ofreducers and a 3% share for rotary actuators. This framework is widely adopted by Revenue share from Aviation & Space to increase; Semis to grow strongly inFY26E and FY27E HDS has, for the first time, provided a breakdown of its revenue forecast for the next and nozzle control systems),aircraft(actuators for high-lifting surfaces,position pick-off units, landing gears, and trolley lift), andhelicopters. HDS products have been adopted by prominent organizations includingNASA,Tesat-Spacecom(for optical communication terminals),JAXA(JapanAerospace and Exploration Agency), andAirbus. nSemiconductor equipment(14% of group sales in FY25, to 13% by FY30E):Although HDS does not forecast an increase in the revenue share ofsemiconductor equipment, we believethe growth is underestimated. Weexpect strong sales growth from semiconductor equipment in FY26E andFY27E.In CY1Q26, semiconductor orders grew significantly by 103% YoYon a non-consolidated basis. The outlook for wafer fab equipment (WFE) forCY26E has been consistently revised upward, with AMAT guiding for over New five-year and FY targets: Some conservatism with upside risks HDS has providednew fiv