康明斯：2026年分析师日——进入主电源市场，但业绩指引未达预期

Chad Dillard+1 917 344 8469chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com Miguel Marques, CFA+1 917 344 8432miguel.marques@bernsteinsg.com RatingMarket-Perform Specialist Sales Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com Price Target CMI 700.00 USD Cummins: 2026 Analyst Day - Entering prime power market, butguide falls short CMI closed down 5% after updating its 2030 guide. Targets underwhelmed, despite raisingrevenues from $43-48B to $45-50B, and EBITDA margin from 17-18% to >20%, implyingEBITDA 10% below street. Also as expected, CMI is entering data center prime power with anew 4 MW natural gas engine, with first deliveries in ‘28. Entering prime power and adding further capacity in standby.The critical strategyupdate of the day came in the form of 1) its newly announced 4 MW nat gas recipe enginefor data center prime power and 2) further standby capacity expansion. After wrapping upits 9 GW, $200M standby capacity increase in 4Q25, mgmt is adding another 20 MW incapacity (to 55 GW by 2030), costing $450M. Behind this, mgmt also expects its data centerrevenues to grow from $5B in ‘25 to $9B+ by ‘30, implying a 12% CAGR. For context,a)street’s Power Gen revenue CAGR stands at 15%, b) peer GNRC who entered data centerstandby this year is guiding to a mid-low 20s CAGR thru ‘28 (street high-20s), andc)CAT’sPower Gen guide implies a 20% CAGR from ‘24-30. The CMI guide strikes us as conservativeat first glance. This is further reflected in mgmt’s comment that they don't expect the currentmix of standby in Power revenues at 95% to change by ‘30 despite the new 4 MW engine. Engine to be driven by margin accretive content and aftermarket opportunities.WithEPA ‘27 on deck, CMI’s Engine strategy is focused on what it can control:a)growing content,b)leaning into its most technologically advanced engine platform yet to drive share gains,andc)capture incremental aftermarket revenues. As they come off their peak investmentperiod, these factors should drive improved results. Mgmt updated its growth algo to 6-9% top-line CAGR through 2030with 2-3pptscoming equally from data center, higher Engine content, and growth in other end markets. Investment Implications Maintain Market-Perform rating,$700TP DETAILS EXHIBIT 3:CMI’s Capacity Guide Implies a 9% CAGR in Capacity and a 12% CAGR in Related Data Center Revenues EXHIBIT 5:On CMI’s Framework, We Estimate This Roughly Gets to ~$46 in 2030 EPS (7% Below Street). AssumingReaches Breakeven Could Add Another $1-2 in EPS, Getting to ~$47 in EPS (4% Below Street) EXHIBIT 6:On a SoTP Basis, if We Assume CMI’s Data Center Guide is Reflective of its Power Systems CAGR, thenthe Power Systems Business Warrants a 35x Multiple, in our view. On Street’s 15% CAGR, Power Warrants a 45xMultiple EXHIBIT 9:CMI Reiterated its Intent to Spend 3-4% of Revenues on Capex. Power Systems Indexes Below This, ButCapacity Expansions and Leaning Into Prime Could Shift This Higher EXHIBIT 10:CMI’s Updated 2030 Guidance Sees $45-50B in Revenue, 4% Higher Than Their Prior Guide of $43-48Bat the Midpoint. It Also Assumes >20% EBITDA Margins vs. Their Prior Guide of 17-18% EXHIBIT 11:The Overall Company Strategy to Drive Growth and Margin Expansion is Centered on 5 Pillars: 1) TheirNew HELM Platform, 2) Continued Power Gen Growth, 3) Aftermarket Strength, 4) Lower Accelera Losses, and 5)Continued Operational Efficiencies EXHIBIT 12:Engine Business Catalysts: 1) Content, 2) Aftermarket, and 3) Lapping Peak Investment EXHIBIT 13:Power Systems Catalysts: 1) Continued Standby Growth, 2) Incremental Standby Capacity, and 3)Extending the Portfolio into Prime Power EXHIBIT 14:Data Centers Generated ~$5B in Revenue in FY25. CMI Expects This to Grow to $9B+ by 2030 APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS EXHIBIT 17:CMI Segment Summary BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Cummins Inc Our $700 price target is based on a 22x P/E multiple to our 2027 EPS, which we believe is appropriate given (1) o