亚太地区新一波产业政策：复苏会导致结构转型吗？

A New Wave of Industrial Could Resurgence lead to Structural Prepared by Paula Arias, Vanya Georgieva, Rahul Giri, MariaGonzalez-Miranda, Ashique Habib, Anne-Charlotte Paret,Tatjana Schulze, Arthur Xie, Weining Xin, Yichen Xu, Dilan Yang WP/26/101 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarily 2026MAY IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Department A New Wave of Industrial Policy in Asia-Pacific: Could Resurgence lead to Structural Transformation? Prepared by Paula Arias, Vanya Georgieva, Rahul Giri, Maria Gonzalez-Miranda, Ashique Habib, Anne-Charlotte Paret, Tatjana Schulze, Arthur Xie, Weining Xin, Yichen Xu, Dilan Yang Authorized for distribution by Thomas Helbling IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:This paper provides a first comprehensive assessment of industrial policy (IP) across Asia‑Pacific and its potential to enable structural transformation. Building an IP database for 2009–2024, paired with a richdataset, the paper documents a large wave of IP interventions. Subsidies dominate, followed by import-limitingmeasures. Novel applications of machine‑learning and clustering approaches to assess IP targeting suggestthat, ex-ante, about three-quarters of IP could align with structural transformation strategies, including relativelysafe (“safe-bets”) and risky (“moonshots”) strategies promoting technological upgrading and diversification, and RECOMMENDED CITATION:Arias and others, 2026. “A New Wave of Industrial Policy in Asia-Pacific: CouldResurgence lead to Structural Transformation?” IMF Working Paper WP/2026/101. International Monetary A New Wave of Industrial Policy in Could Resurgence lead to Structural Prepared by Paula Arias, Vanya Georgieva, Rahul Giri, Maria Gonzalez-Miranda, Ashique Habib, Anne-Charlotte Paret, Tatjana Schulze, ArthurXie, Weining Xin, Yichen Xu, Dilan Yang1 Contents Glossary ............................................................................................................................................................... 4 II.A Brief Literature Review and Contributions .......................................................................................11 IV.The Landscape of IP in Asia-Pacific .....................................................................................................15 V.IP Determinants and Implicit IP Strategies ...........................................................................................18 An Initial Look at IP Determinants ........................................................................................................ 18A Multi-Dimensional Approach ............................................................................................................. 20Results: Machine Learning ................................................................................................................... 22Results: Clustering Exercise................................................................................................................. 25 VI.IP: Trade and Competitiveness .............................................................................................................29 IP and Trade Metrics ............................................................................................................................ 30Impact on Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA)........................................................................... 33 VII.IP and Firm-Level Domestic Outcomes ................................................................................................35 VIII.Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................... 42 Annex I. Technical Annex.................................................................................................................................44 II. Complementary Data and Indicators ................................................................................................ 48III. Machine Learning: A Random Forests Approach ........................................................................... 49IV. Clustering Exercise ......................................................................................................................... 50V. IP and Product Level Trade – Additional Results ............................................................................ 51 References ......................................................................................................................................................... 53 FIGURES 1a. Asia-Pacific IP Landscape .................................