2026年全球经济回顾与展望

The current trajectoryof FDI & Trade The global economy has performed betterthan predicted in 2025 and forecasts forgrowth in 2026 have edged higher as the yearprogressed. Trade continues to grow, with Despite these obstacles, there are several reasons foroptimism in 2026. New trade agreements are providingcompanies with greater certainty and predictability, whilefinancial conditions have become more supportive of Review: The global economy has not While tariffs have dominated headlines in 2025, theunderlying trend shaping global trade is the resilience ofsupply chains. Despite a wave of protectionist policiesthreatening to reverse decades of trade and investment Heading into 2026, we expect to see a period ofsteady growth. Firms are learning to navigate the newtrade landscape, a trade war is less likely than this However, the full impact of tariffs is still to be felt as manyhave not fully played their way into the global economic system.Theoverall effective US tariff rate rose to anestimated 19.5% at the end of August, the highest rate At a sectoral level, this is a period of transition. Tradedependent manufacturing and some export-orientedregions will remain vulnerable to trade disruption, whilelow-productivity services such as hospitality will struggleto pass on costs or adopt new technology. However, for Beyond tariffs, other headwinds have been pushing againstglobal growth. The labour market is slowing with a ‘low-hire, low-fire’ pattern across the US and Europe weakeningproductivity. The movement of talent is also being restricted Outlook: Astrained US-China relationshipis set to dominate the global We saw this in 2025 with Japan and South Korea embracingsecurity cooperation with the US while maintainingsubstantial trade with China, or Brazil looking to China as a One of the defining economic stories of 2026 is likely to bethe evolving relationship between the US and China, and itsimpact on other economies. Washington and Beijing are nowcompeting on virtually every domain of global power, and However, for most countries this will be difficult withoutdrawing the attention and ire of the US. Indigenousindustries are also concerned about competition fromChinese exports. Those that rely on American trade or A welcome step towards stability emerged late in 2025,when Presidents Trump and Xi met and agreed on a“positive framework” addressing tariffs, soybeans, fentanyl,and critical minerals. However, the agreement leavesmajor issues unresolved - such as dual-use technologies In 2026, nations, regions, and cities will needto develop a clear strategy for navigatingalongside and between two economic Countries outside the US cannot ignore China as it is thesecond largest economy in the world with a large pool ofinvestment capital, expertise in strategic technologies (EV,batteries, clean energy), and a driver of demand in manysectors. We expect many will seek to hedge their risk by Economic stories to watch in 2026 UK needs to deliver a long-term visionand Industrial Strategy Europe still searching for anew narrative US economic slowdown will not stoptech dominance The UK is caught in a short-term mindset, with monthly GDPfluctuations receiving intense scrutiny from both the media Structural challenges put Europe’s FDI competitiveness to the The US is forecast to grow at a slower rate in 2026, but itremains the country setting the agenda for future innovation •While forecast growth remains low for 2026 (1.1%), thebloc is addressing, albeit slowly, long-term structural •Growth is projected at 2.1% in 2026, down from 2.8% in20241.•Higher tariff rates feeding into the economy, fragile •The 2025 Industrial Strategy provides the long-term visionthe country needs to increase business investment and •Significant investment is sending positive signals toinvestors – for example €200 billion in AI, €150 billion indefence, and €100 billion for decarbonisation. •The Autumn Budget has committed to long-term •New trade deals and national infrastructure funds, such asGermany’s €500 billion infrastructure fund, could see the •Devolution of funding and decision making to regionaland local authorities, such as the seven MayoralStrategic Authorities, will create scope to align local •However rising populism threatens critical labour and taxreforms that need implemented at a member state level. Economic stories to watch in 2026 China slowdown will be felt acrossthe world Middle East provides a neutral groundfor growth Emerging markets have the wind intheir sails Shifting supply chains, raw materials, and changingdemographics are propelling emerging markets to new The Middle East is emerging as a safe harbour for trade and China has transformed itself from the “Factory of the World”to a high-tech, innovation-driven consumer economy, but •The growing divide between Washington and Beijing ispushing both powers to deepen ties with strategicallyneutral partners.•The Middle East offers energy secu