泰国月度经济监测

Monitor27 April 2026 Thailand remains resilient, supported by continued investment and tourism recovery,ahead of new globalheadwinds from the Middle East conflict.Tourismgrowthin Marchwas driven bystrongregionalarrivals,with afuture watch onlong-haul visitor numbers andpotentialairline disruptions. Inflation stayed near zerodue to timelypricemeasures whichcushioned the energy shock,despite risingcosts.The government has responded withPublic Disclosure Authorized Thailand remains resilient in the face of new headwinds fromtheMiddle East conflict.Both demand-and supply-sideindicators weakened in February 2026.On the demand side,privateconsumption decelerated, driven by a sharp drop indurable goods spending after consumers front-loaded purchasesof electric vehicles ahead of the expiration of the EV 3.0 subsidyprogramat end-January(Fig.1).Services spending alsoweakenedas tourism receipts declined and non-durableconsumption softened.However, private investment continued toPublic Disclosure Authorized Tourist arrivalstotaled 2.78 million in March, rising 2.0percent(yoy), despite escalation ofconflict in the MiddleEast.Arrivalsremainedat80 percent of the pre-pandemic level,led byChineseand Malaysianvisitors,up38 percent (yoy) and17 percent, respectively(Fig. 2).However,tourists from VietNam, Cambodia, and Lao PDR declined.Long-haularrivalsalsoPublic Disclosure Authorized Goods exportgrowthmoderated to10.6percent(yoy)inFebruary, following a23.6 percent surge in the previousmonth(Fig.3).The pullback was concentrated in gold,agricultural,and agro manufacturingexports.The agriculturalexportscontracted on weaker demand and lower prices.Public Disclosure Authorized Inflation edged up nearzero in March,butsurging dieselcosts andthe unwinding ofsubsidies are set to push pricessharplyhigher in the coming months.Headline inflationmoderated to-0.08 percent(yoy)in March, the softest decline intwelve months,asprice controlson fuel andelectricitypartiallyshielded consumers from the global energy shock during the firsthalf of the month(Fig. 4). Core inflation remained stable at 0.57percent.On a month-on-month basis, prices rose 0.60 percent,reflecting the initial pass-throughfromreduceddiesel subsidies.Looking ahead, inflationary pressures areset to intensify,asdiesel prices have already surgedby56percent since February. The government has taken a calibrated and forward-lookingapproach—prioritizing targeted relief, safeguarding fiscalspace, and advancing structural reforms.The fiscal deficitwidened as spending accelerated on investment and transfers,while the government is preparing emergency Oil Fund borrowingto absorb the energy shock.In thefirst five months of FY2026,the central government's fiscal deficit (GFS basis) widenedasboth current and capital spending accelerated,reflectingincreasedbudget execution for investment and Half-Halfcopayment transfers.Public debt stood at 66.1percent of GDPinFebruary,remaining belowthe ceiling of 70 percent.On April 21,Moody'supgradedThailand's outlook from negative to stable(Baa1 affirmed) on reduced U.S. tariff risks, noting that whiletheMiddle East-drivensurge inoil prices pressure growth and public The government’s4T Target,Transition,TransformTogetherstrategyemphasizes targeted support for vulnerable groupsrather than universal transfers.On March 26, the Cabinetapproved measures to mitigate the impact of surging energyprices,with an estimated fiscal cost of THB 3.6 billion (0.02 one month.Other targeted measures include reliefmeasuresfortrucking, public buses, and motorcycletaxis;agricultural supportthrough the Green Flag fertilizer subsidy program;and theThaiHelp Thaicampaign forpromotingSME products through online Looking to the longer-term, the governmentaims toalsofocuson medium-term measures to promote energytransitionand support productivity.Energy transitionmeasurestarget cleaner and alternative sources,includingrooftop solar, ethanol from sugarcane and cassava, and biodiesel Rising global risk aversion hasled to volatility in Thaifinancial markets.The Thai bahtnominal effective exchangerate (NEER)depreciated in Marchand early Aprilas the MiddleEast conflict triggered global risk-off sentiment and strengthenedtheU.S.dollar,especially given market concerns aboutThailand’s heavy reliance on Middle East oil (57 percent of totaloilimports).Net portfolio outflows from both equities and