安道尔公国：若干问题

PRINCIPALITY OF ANDORRA SELECTED ISSUES May2026 This paperonAndorrawas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fundas background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund PRINCIPALITY OFANDORRA SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByEuropean Department Prepared By A. Bibolov, M. Comunale (All EUR) and N. Carroll(FAD) CONTENTS Acronyms______________________________________________________________________________3 HIGH-FREQUENCY INDICATORS AND GDP NOWCASTING IN ANDORRA ________ 4 A. Introduction _________________________________________________________________________4B. Methodology ________________________________________________________________________6C. Selection of Leading Indicators ______________________________________________________6D. Nowcasting GDP Growth ____________________________________________________________7E. Validation and Model Comparison ___________________________________________________8F. Scenario Analysis: Road Closure at Pas de la Casa__________________________________11 FIGURES 1. Selected High-Frequency Indicators__________________________________________________52. Real GDP Growth in Andorra, Spain, and France _____________________________________53. Baseline Nowcast of GDP Growth in the Current Quarter ____________________________84. Alternative Nowcasting GDP Growth _______________________________________________10 TABLES 1. Selection of Leading Indicators_______________________________________________________72. RMSEs Horse Race ___________________________________________________________________9 References____________________________________________________________________________13 APPENDICIES I. Econometric Methodology _________________________________________________________________13II. Data Description ___________________________________________________________________________ 16 THE ANALYSIS OF THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM IN ANDORRA FROM A FISCALPERSPECTIVE ________________________________________________________________________________20 A. Introduction________________________________________________________________________________20B. Overview of the Andorran Health System __________________________________________________21C. Government Health Spending: Trends and Outlook________________________________________25 FIGURES1. Financing Flows in the Andorra Health System, 2023_______________________________________22 2. Cross-Country Benchmarking of Andorra’s Health Spending_______________________________243. Explaining the Growth in Government Health Expenditure, 2014-25 _______________________264. Outlook for Government Health Spending Pressures, 2025-30 _____________________________28 BOXES1. Budgetary Practices for Health in OECD Countries _________________________________________31 2. Reforming Sickness and Disability Benefits_________________________________________________32 References____________________________________________________________________________________33 Acronyms CASSCaixa Andorrana de Seguretat SocialCOFOGThe Classification of the Functions of Government (COFOG) from the GovernmentFinance StatisticsECGExcess Cost GrowthGFSGovernment Finance StatisticsGHEDGlobal Health Expenditure DatabaseLTCLong-Term CareOECDOrganization for Economic Cooperation and Development HIGH-FREQUENCY INDICATORS AND GDP High-frequency signals for Andorra were combined into a timely real-time estimate of quarterly GDPgrowth using a mixed-frequency nowcasting model. The resulting framework delivers a transparent, A.Introduction 1.Timely information on economic activity is essential for monitoring the business cycleand informing policy and risk assessments.However, national accounts are released with a delayimplying that the most recent, or current, quarter of GDP is typically observed only after asubstantial lag. By contrast, there is a wide range of higher-frequency indicators (e.g., tourism flows, 2.A survey of available high-frequency indicators suggests they can be effective inunderstanding short-term trends.Main drivers of the economy on a gross value-added (GVA)basis include tourism, construction, real estate, and retail. An illustrative example of few keyindicators is shown in Figure 1. For tourism and retail, the number of overnight tourists hasincreased in 2025 and retail sales in 2025 to date are broadly in line with past data. Imports relatedto retail trade and hospitality point to continued strength in GVA through the end of 2025. Imports 3.Selected high frequency indicators are combined with historical national accounts datato develop a nowcasting model of quarterly GDP growth.The focus of the nowcasting exerciseis on estimating GDP growth i