不确定性对投资的成本：量化政策波动性对全球经济投资的影响

Copyright © 2026 International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) ICC holds all copyright and other intellectual property rights in this collective work, and encourages •ICC must be cited as the source and copyright holder mentioning the title of the document,© International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), and the publication year.•Express written permission must be obtained for any modification, adaptation or translation,for any commercial use, and for use in any manner that implies that another organisation Table of contents Executive summary 1Analytical framework: Measuring the economic costs of policy uncertainty 1.1. What is economic policy uncertainty?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .61.2. How economic policy uncertainty can impact the economy?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .61.3. How do we measure economic uncertainty?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 2Trends in economic policy uncertainty 2.1. What has happened since 2000?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .92.2. What happened in 2025?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112.3. Should we expect a renewed surge in uncertainty in 2026?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 3Modelling approach 3.1. Methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .133.2. Caveats and limitations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 4Results 4.1. How much did policy uncertainty in 2025 reduce investment?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .164.2. How might uncertainty impact investment in 2026?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 5Policy implications: Policy certainty as a public good and the case for stability Appendix I: Bibliography23 Appendix II: Economic methodology List of figures Figure 1. Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, % change from historical average. . . . . . . . . . . . . .9Figure 2. Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, by country, % change from historical average. .10Figure 3. Estimated lost or delayed business investment in 2025, in US$ billion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16Figure 4.Cost of uncertainty on investment growth in 2025: actual vs. counterfactual, real year-on-year, %). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Executive summary The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) commissioned Oxford Economics to provide anindependent assessment of the cost of economic policy uncertainty for business investment. This Policy uncertainty reached record levels in 2025, imposing aconsiderable and measurable cost on global business investment Driven primarily by volatility in trade policy and culminating inthe April 2025 “Liberation Day” tariff package, economic policyuncertainty1rose to its highest level on record, surpassing both Across Brazil, Canada, China, EU-42, India, Japan, Mexico, SouthKorea, the United Kingdom and United States (together accountingfor around 70% of world GDP), the surge in policy uncertainty in 2025 reduced real business investment by an estimated 1.4% relativeto a counterfactual with no new uncertainty shock. This translates The impact varied widely across countries, reflecting differences in exposure and sensitivity touncertaintyMexico and Canada suffered the steepest relative declines, with investment estimatedto be 6.8% and 5.3% lower respectively than in the counterfactual. Despite retaining substantialaccess to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), both countries still incurred In some countries, the uncertainty‑related investment decline, while smaller, is comparable in scaleto past crisis episodesIn Mexico and Canada, uncertainty-related losses in 2025 amount to roughlyone third to one half of the investment contractions observed during the COVID-19 pandemic andthe global financial crisis, highlighting the scale of the shock relative to recent history. In the United The stakes for 2026 are even higherEarly 2026 developments (including renewed legal, geopoliticaland military tensions) suggest that policy uncertainty is likely to remain elevated. Our scenario uncertainty shock of historical magnitude hitting all economies in the second quarter of 2026, realbusiness investment across the 10 economies could fall by an estimated 2.7% in 2026, equivalent toaround US$380 billion (or 100% of FDI inflows to North America in 2025). Under a favourable sce