贸易政策不确定性对东盟经济的影响

Unpacking the Effects ofTrade Policy Uncertaintyon ASEAN Economies Sandile Hlatshwayo and Aishwary Trivedi SIP/2026/031 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on February 4, 2026. This paper isalso published separately as IMF Country Report No 26/55. 2026APR IMF Selected Issues PaperAsia and Pacific Department Unpacking the Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty on ASEAN EconomicsPrepared by Sandile Hlatshwayo and Aishwary Trivedi Authorized for distribution by Masahiro NozakiApril2026 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on February 4, 2026. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 26/55. ABSTRACT:Trade policy uncertainty (TPU) has reached record highs in recent years. This paper buildsgranular TPU measures for several ASEAN economies that distinguish between protectionist and tradeagreement-based uncertainty, as well as differences between ‘own’-country TPU shocks and third-party TPUshocks (i.e., spillovers from TPU in trading partner economies). It finds that third-party TPU shocks are mostdetrimental to output per capita through weaker investment and private consumption, and despite improvedtrade balances. Own protectionist TPU shocks reduce trade balances and raise inflation. In contrast, ownagreement TPU shocks are linked to a modest, temporary boost to output, likely reflecting anticipatoryinvestment. Unpacking the Effects of TradePolicy Uncertainty on ASEANEconomies Malaysia Prepared by Sandile Hlatshwayo and Aishwary Trivedi1 MALAYSIA SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByAsia and PacificDepartment Prepared BySandile HlatshwayoandAishwary Trivedi(APD) UNPACKING THE EFFECTS OF TRADE POLICY UNCERTAINTY ON ASEANECONOMIES __________________________________________________________________________ 3 A. Introduction__________________________________________________________________________3B. Granular TPU Measures: Methodology & Stylized Facts______________________________5C. Empirical Methodology ____________________________________________________________ 10D. Empirical Results ___________________________________________________________________ 12E. Conclusion _________________________________________________________________________ 19References____________________________________________________________________________ 20 FIGURES 1.Own Trade Policy Uncertainty, By Type and Region________________________________82.ASEAN6 Own Trade Policy Uncertainty, By Type: 1995 to 2025 ____________________93.ASEAN6 Third-Party Trade Policy Uncertainty, By Type: 1995 to 2024 _____________94.Impact of TPU Shocks on Real GDP Per Capita___________________________________ 135.Impacts of Third-Party TPU Shocks on Real GDP Per Capita Across Percentiles ofTrade Openness _________________________________________________________________ 146.Impact of TPU Shocks on Real GDP Per Capita: Dual-Shock Specifications_______ 157.Protectionist TPU Shocks: Channels ______________________________________________ 168.Agreement TPU Shocks: Channels _______________________________________________ 18 TABLES 1.Examples of Malaysia’s Trade Policy Uncertainty Measures Across Type andGeography ________________________________________________________________________52.Own Trade Policy Uncertainty Sample Statistics, by Type and Region______________83.Correlation between Own TPU Measures and Other Uncertainty Measures______ 10 ANNEXES I.Alternative Trade Policy Uncertainty Term Sets ___________________________________ 22II.Trade Policy Uncertainty Algorithms – Additional Methodological Detail_________ 23III.Additional Stylized Facts__________________________________________________________ 25IV.Empirical Methodology and Data Annex__________________________________________ 26V.Robustness Checks _______________________________________________________________ 28 UNPACKING THE EFFECTS OF TRADE POLICYUNCERTAINTY ON ASEAN ECONOMIES1 Trade policy uncertainty (TPU) has reached record highs in recent years. To better understand itseffects, this paper develops granular TPU measures for several ASEAN economies that distinguishbetween protectionist and trade agreement-based uncertainty, as well as differences between ‘own’-country TPU shocks and third-party TPU shocks (i.e., spillovers from TPU in trading partnereconomies). The results indicate that third-party protectionist TPU shocks are the most detrimental tooutput per capita, followed by third-party agreement TPU shocks and own protectionist TPU shocks.For third-party TPU shocks, declines in investment and private consumption disproportionately offsetstronger trade balances that likely stem from reallocated trade flows to ASEAN, in line with priorliterature. O