流动秀：股票治安官

The Stock Vigilantes Scores on the Doors: oil 70.4%, gold 10.4%, int'l stocks 7.4%, cash 1.0%, HY 0.6%, US$0.5%, IG 0.0%, US stocks -0.3%, govt bonds -0.6%, bitcoin -17.4% YTD. 09 April 2026 Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist: “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as thepresident or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as thebond market. You can intimidate everybody,” James Carville, 1993. The Biggest Picture: it's the stock market now, James… markets stop panicking whenpolicymakers start panicking, and policy easing has quickly reversed Wall St bears &corrections since GFC (Chart 2 - SPX just 4% “oversold” on ceasefire announcement);stocks “too big to fail”, no one short until policy fails (US$/bond collapse, credit event),why inflows to stocks in ’26 on course for record year. MichaelHartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com The Price is Right: Trump approval 41%, on economy 37%, on inflation 33%, new lows(Chart 7, still above '22 Biden lows of 37%, 32%, 28% respectively); why post-war policyeasing to address Main St affordability (+ve consumer stocks), why temporary tradedétente likely Trump-Xi summit in May, why Fed won’t be raising rates before midterms. Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Tale of the Tape: trader sentiment was“sell the rip”, now“new highs by May”; bullmojo driven by“X-factors…DXY US$ (liquidity tell) back below 100, BKX banks(recession tell) held 150, new high SOX semis (PMI tell), new highs XBI biotech (durationtell); bulls in charge so long as SOX, XBI, GNR (commodities–Chart 3) hold highs; butbears back in charge if bond yields fall and HY bonds & private credit still can't catch bid. Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Jessica GuoInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0033jessica.guo@bofa.com Chart2:The Stock VigilantesS&P 500indexdeviation fromits200-day moving average Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy. The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH More on page 2… Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources toabsorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 12 to 14.12957339 Timestamp: 09 April 2026 11:23PM EDT Weekly Flows: $70.7bn to cash, $36.8bn to stocks, $8.7bn to bonds, $3.5bn to gold,$0.2bn to crypto. Flows to Know: •Cash: biggest inflow in 9 weeks ($70.7bn),•Gold: biggest inflow in 6 weeks ($3.5bn),•Treasuries: 10thweek of inflows ($5.3bn),•HY bonds: 1stinflow in 7 weeks, biggest inflow since Dec'25 ($1.6bn),•Stocks: biggest inflow in 3 weeks ($36.8bn), $275bn inflow YTD…on track forrecord year,•Japan equities: biggest outflow since Nov'25 ($2.1bn),•Energy: biggest outflow since Jul'24 ($2.1bn), 1stoutflow since Nov'25 (Chart 14),•Consumer: 12thweek of outflows ($0.6bn–longest streak since Feb'03). Big Flows to Know: big flow trends since 2008 GFC remain firmly in place;passive>active…$7.1tn inflows to equity ETFs vs. $3.4tn outflows from long-only equityfunds (Chart 9); corporate>government bonds…$2.7tn inflows to IG bond funds vs. just$0.9tn inflows to US Treasury funds (Chart 10). BofA Private Clients: $4.2tn AUM…63.6% in stocks, 18.3% in bonds, 10.8% in cash;private clients buying stocks…equity ETF share count up 0.7% past week, up 3.1% YTD;past 4 weeks, GWIM buying materials, industrials, and high dividend ETFs, selling EMdebt, bank loan, tech ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: unchanged at 6.3 as equity & EM debt fund outflowsoffset more bullish positioning in S&P500 & gold futures, less negative credit technicals;BofA Bull & Bear Indicator in neutral territory after Dec 17thcontrarian“sell signal”forrisk assets ended on March 25th;“old”BofA Bull & Bear Indicator down to 5.1 from 5.71. BofA Global Fund Manager Survey: April survey released Tuesday 14th; extreme bearsentiment readings that would say“close-your-eyes-and-buy”would be similar to theApr’25 post-Liberation Day surveywhich saw global growth expectations fall to a 30-year low of -82% (was +7% in Mar’26 FMS