流动秀：基础胜过亿万富翁

Base beats Billionaires Scores on the Doors: gold 12.0%, oil 10.2%, global stocks 4.9%, HY bonds 0.9%, IG0.6%, cash 0.3%, govt bonds 0.2%, US$ -0.4%, US stocks -0.7%, bitcoin -27.2% YTD. 06 February 2026 Investment StrategyGlobal The BiggestPicture: peak positioning, peak liquidity, peak inequality…why “BroBillionaire”1plays up just 6% since inauguration vs small cap up 13% (Chart 2); we arelong Main St, short Wall St until Trump approval rating up on policy pivot to addressaffordability. The Price is Right: key levels in“froth”unwind hold (big tech XLK $133, bitcoin 58k,gold $4550/ozso long as no US dollar (DXY to 100) surge; butone last deleveragingflush will bebubbly Asia tech (Chart 3); Japan real bond yields -1.5% to 1.5% past year,ominously mirroring US real yields -0.5% to 1.5% flip that crushed crypto, tech in’22. MichaelHartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Tale of the Tape: $2tn crypto market cap loss since Oct = 10% of US consumer spend;Wall St sensibly rotating from AI spenders to beneficiaries, services to manufacturing,US exceptionalism to global rebalancing, bond-bear losers to“peak yield”winners(REITs); but if wealth surge at top of K-shape US economy reverses at same timepayrolls start falling…biggest meltdown could be US Treasury yields. Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Bro Billionaires* vs Base (Russell 2000, RHS) Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy. The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH More on page 2… 1NVDA, META, PLTR, TSLA, ARKK, APO, BX, ORCL, COIN, XBT Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investorsshould have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 12 to 14.12931785 Timestamp: 06 February 2026 01:04AM EST Weekly Flows: $87.2bn to cash, $34.6bn to stocks, $23.0bn to bonds, $0.8bn from gold,$1.5bn from crypto. Flows to Know: •Gold: first weekly outflow since Nov'25 ($0.8bn), note record $3.7bn daily outflowfrom gold funds on Tues Feb 3rd(Chart 11);•Crypto: biggest weekly outflow since Nov’25 ($1.5bn–Chart 9);•IG bonds: 41stconsecutive week of inflows, biggest since Aug’25 ($17.1bn);•TIPS: biggest inflow since Oct'25 ($0.7bn);•Europe equities: biggest inflow since Apr'25 ($4.2bn);•Korea equities: biggest weekly inflow ever ($5.2bn–Chart 15);•Energy: 2ndbiggest weekly inflow ever ($4.2bn);•Tech: biggest inflow in 8 weeks ($6.0bn–Chart 13);•Utilities: biggest outflow past 2 weeks since Nov'24 ($1.2bn). 2020s Flows to Know: cumulative inflows decade-to-date…cash $5.0tn, stocks $3.0tn,bonds $2.4tn, gold $128bn, crypto $98bn (Charts 7, 10, 12, 14). BofA Private Clients: $4.4tn AUM…64.4% stocks, 17.8% bonds, 10.6% cash; past 4weeks: clients buying IG bond, municipal bond, TIPS ETFs, and selling REITs, HY bonds,and staples ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: rises from 9.4 to 9.6 (highest since Mar'06–Chart 25) onstrong inflows to tech & high-yield bond funds, record-low FMS cash, strong globalstock index breath, offset by EM debt outflows, hedge funds cutting gold longs & VIXshorts; positioning excess bullish…contrarian “sell signal” for risk assets (started Dec17th) remains in place; note “old”2B&B indicator stays at 6.4. On Positioning: positioning metrics that end the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator “sell signal”are…a. cash levels in BofA Global FMS (released Feb 17th) up from 3.2% to >3.8%, b.bigoutflows from stocks (>$100bn) & tech funds (>$4bn) next 4 weeks, c. HY CDX creditspreads >350bp, d. “overbought” global equity indices ended by 3-5% price drop. On Pricewe expectkey levels for“froth assets”to hold, e.g. XLK (big tech) $133, XBT(