流动秀 ： 徒步旅行

Take a Hike Scores on the Doors: crypto 51.9%, oil 19.6%, gold 15.1%, commodities 11.2%, stocks7.2%, US dollar 3.9%, cash 1.5%, HY bonds 0.5%, IG bonds -2.3%, govt bonds -5.0%. 11 April 2024 Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist: "Biggest piece of M&A in past 12 months was the merger of Treasury & Fed.” The Biggest Picture: 10-year annualized return of US Treasuries at 65-year low (0.6% -Chart 2); 2020s era of war, protectionism, fiscal excess, scarce energy/housing/labor =higher inflation & higher cost of capital until recession sparks“buy bond humiliation.” Tale of theTape: "ABB" (Anything But Bonds) Bull inciting greed for inflation hedges &monopolistic cash flows (new highs gold & Magnificent 7) + fear of leverage (see REITs,KRE, RTY) & duration (XBI);“no landing”probability rising…rare for tech&commoditiesboth top-of-the-price (Chart 6), but consistent with no landing and very 1999. The Price is Right: US CPI on course to be 4-5% by Nov US election (Chart 3) +nominal GDP +5-6% Q1 says Atlanta Fed (surprise is EPS does not surprise to upside–Chart 4) + China sleeping giant waking…little wonder nominal & real rates breakinghigher…higher real rates (2.5-3% this time) always end the party; but gold/tech also sayparlous state of US govt finances means inevitable ICC, YCC, end of QT to prevent debtcrisis. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Chart2:Biggest Story of 2020s…Ugly End of 40-year Bond BullLong-term US government bond (15+ year) rolling 10-year annualized returns, % Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com More on page 2… Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein maygive rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark. responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 10 to 12.12680703 Timestamp: 11 April 2024 11:35PM EDT BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Weekly Flows: $13.3bn to bonds, $0.5bn to cash, $0.4bn to crypto, $0.9bn from gold,$19.6bn from stocks (2ndlargest outflow of 2024). Flows to Know: •IG bonds: 24thstraight week of inflow ($9.2bn–Chart 10)...the“glue”of the bull,•Treasuries: 9thstraight week of inflow ($2.4bn),•Japan stocks: 1stoutflow ($1.4bn–Chart 11) in over 3 months,•LatAm stocks: largest outflow ($0.5bn) since Sep’23; note big $2.7bn outflow YTD,•US large cap: largest outflow ($15.8bn–Chart 12) since Dec’22,•Utilities: 13thstraight week of outflow ($0.3bn - Chart 13), longest streak since2003. BofA Private Clients: $3.5tn AUM…61.4% stocks, 20.2% bonds, 11.6% cash; privateclients buying T-bills for the 1sttime in 2 months; past 4 weeks GWIM buying EM debt,Japan, municipal ETFs & selling energy, dividend and financials ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: dips to 5.2 from 5.3 on stock outflows and UST hedging. On Positioning: BofA Bull & Bear Indicator shows cross-asset bullishness hasmoderated past 8 weeks; bullishness more extreme in… •MMFs…inflows annualizing >$1tn YTD, •IG bonds…inflows annualizing record $488bn,•US stocks…inflows annualizing $231bn (2ndbiggest year ever),•Tech funds…inflows annualizing record $67bn. …watch April BofA Global Fund Manager Survey released Tuesday April 16th…cash downfrom 4.4% toward 4.0% & equity allocations up from net 28% OW toward 50% (+1stdevrelative to history) would signal another positioning leg higher toward“extreme bull.” On Landings: •Soft landing = bullish = breadth improves = HY bonds, global cyclicals & EM,•No landing = bubble = sell bonds (until real rates bite), sell US$ into strength, barbellstocks with Nasdaq & inflation hedges (gold, commodities, crypto, energy, China),•Hard lan