为低收入国家制定动态稳定的公共债务轨迹基准（英）

Benchmarking DynamicallyStable Public Debt Trajectoriesfor Low-Income Countries Plamen Iossifov, Ali Abbas, and Lennart Niermann WP/26/75 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2026APR IMF Working Paper Strategy, Policy,andReviewDepartment BenchmarkingDynamically StablePublicDebt TrajectoriesforLow-Income CountriesPrepared byPlamen Iossifov,Ali Abbas,and Lennart Niermann* Authorized for distribution byAllison HollandApril2026 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:In this paper, we develop two complementary approaches for benchmarking the public debttrajectories of Low-Income Countries (LICs) to assess their dynamic stability. We compare the evolution of theoverall public debt-to-GDP ratios of reference LICs with the historical experiences of other countries with similarcharacteristics, which are now further down the path of economic development and have not experienced publicdebt stress events. We rely on both direct comparison and a novel application of the synthetic control method(SCM). These public debt trajectories that are dynamically stable from a historical perspective can provideinsights into debt sustainability analyses for LICs. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Iossifov, P., Abbas, A., and Niermann, L., 2026,“Benchmarking DynamicallyStable Public Debt Trajectories for Low-Income Countries”, IMF WP/26/75. International Monetary Fund,Washington, D.C. BenchmarkingDynamically StablePublicDebt TrajectoriesforLow-Income Countries Prepared byPlamen Iossifov,Ali Abbas,and Lennart Niermann1 Contents Glossary...............................................................................................................................................................3 A. Data Description......................................................................................................................................10B. Historical Comparison..............................................................................................................................11C. Synthetic Control Method........................................................................................................................12 Data Sample.................................................................................................................................................17Indicator Definition and Data Sources..........................................................................................................19 A. Overview..................................................................................................................................................21 Appendix III. Synthetic Control Method..........................................................................................................24 A. Overview..................................................................................................................................................24B. Implementation Details............................................................................................................................25C. Robustness Checks.................................................................................................................................27 References.........................................................................................................................................................28 FIGURES 1. LICs: Overall Public Debt, 1995-2023...............................................................................................................52. LICs: Overall Public Debt to GDP Ratio Relative to MACs.............................................................................113. Differences between Overall Public-Debt-to-GDP Ratios of Reference LICs and their SyntheticBenchmarks........................................................................................................................................................15Appendix III Figure 1. SCM Robustness: Differences between Overall Public Debt-to-GDP Ratios of..............27 TABLES 1. Selected Controls based on the ADL Bohn Regressions................................................................................13Appendix I Table 1. Sample of Low-Income Countries Used in the Analysis.....................................................17Appendix I Table 2. Sample of Market Access Countries Used as Peers for Reference Percentile LICs..........18Appendix II Table 1. Effect of Institutional Fe