低收入国家债务脆弱性的最新发展和趋势

IMF staff regularly produces papers proposing new IMF policies, exploring options forreform, or reviewing existing IMF policies and operations. The Report prepared by IMFand World Bankstaff and completed onOctober10, 2025, has been released. The staff report was issued to the Executive Board for information. The report wasprepared by IMFand World Bankstaff. The views expressed in this paper are those ofthe IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF's Executive Board. TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive informationand premature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reportsand other documents. Electronic copies of IMF Policy Papersare available to the public fromhttp://www.imf.org/external/pp/ppindex.aspx International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. DEBT VULNERABILITIES IN LOW-INCOME COUNTRIESRECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND TRENDS Approved ByGuillaume Chabert(IMF) and ManuelaFrancisco (WB) Prepared byChristopher Dielmannand Miguel Ricaurte(IMF) and Mellany Pintado Vasquez, Wissam Harake,Patricio Merlani, Chenyu Mao, Muazu Ibrahim, MarielaCaycho Arce, Tessy Vasquez Baos, and TsegayeAnduanbessa Assayew (WB) under the overall guidanceof Karina Garcia (IMF) and Luca Bandiera (WB). Dataanalytics and visualization support were provided byJoyce Saito, Songchen Xie, Luisa Ballen, and Chen Chen.Administrative assistance was provided by Claudia Isernand Eiman Afshar (all IMF). CONTENTS Abbreviations and Acronyms_________________________________________________________3 EVOLUTION OF PUBLIC DEBT VULNERABILITIES __________________________________6 EVOLUTION OF PUBLIC DOMESTIC DEBT VULNERABILITIES ____________________14 KEY TAKEAWAYS___________________________________________________________________26 BOXES 1. Developments in Domestic Debt Transparency ___________________________________172. Analysis of Domestic Debt Stress Episodes: Central Bank and the DomesticBanking and Non-Banking Sectors’ Balance Sheet Characteristics___________________25 FIGURES 1. Number of LICs and Youth Living in Countries with High Debt Vulnerabilities, 2024 ___________52. Public Debt to GDP and Primary Balances to GDP______________________________________________73. Evolution of IMF-World Bank LIC-DSF Risk Ratings ____________________________________________84. High External Debt Risk Rating: Pattern of Breaches of Debt Indicators Thresholds by Type ___95. Evolution of GFNs by Components____________________________________________________________106. LIC Bond Spreads and Underlying Yields ______________________________________________________117. Overall Interest to Revenue and External Debt Service to Revenue____________________________128. External Public and Publicly Guaranteed Principal Payments, By Creditor Type________________139. Public External Financing Supply and Needs __________________________________________________1310. Evolution of Domestic Public Debt-to-GDP in LICs___________________________________________1511. Share of Domestic Public Debt in LICs _______________________________________________________1512. Composition of Public Domestic Debt in 2024_______________________________________________1613 Average Nominal Interest Rate on Domestic Debt, 2024 _____________________________________1814. Distribution of Real Domestic Interest Rates in 2024_________________________________________1815. Evolution of Domestic Public Debt Service-to-Revenues_____________________________________1916. Domestic Public Debt Service-to -Revenues, 2024 ___________________________________________1917. Maximum Average Solvency Breaches _______________________________________________________2118. Domestic Debt Vulnerabilities over the Next 5 Years (2025-29) ______________________________2219. LICs Central Banks’ Exposure to Sovereign___________________________________________________2420. LICs Domestic Banks’ Exposure to Sovereign vs. Private Sector ______________________________2421. LICs with Claims on the Sovereign Exceeding 25% of Balance Sheet _________________________2422. LICs with Banks’ Claims on the Private Sector Exceeding 25% of Balance Sheet______________2423. Central Banks’ Claims on the Sovereign______________________________________________________2624. Domestic Banks’ Claims on the Sovereign ___________________________________________________2625. Domestics Banks’ Claims on the Private Sector ______________________________________________26 ANNEXES I. Countries Included in Data Sample ____________________________________________________________28II. Debt Vulnerabilities by Country Groups_______________________________________________________30III. Gross Financing Needs _______________________________________________________________________34IV. Limitation in Measuring Public Domestic Debt Burden, Default, and Arrears _________________36V. Composition of Domestic Debt in 2024_______________________________________________________37VI. Do