为低收入国家的人工智能机会提供动力（英）

INNES MCFEE,CHIEF GLOBAL ECONOMISTGABRIELSTERNE,HEAD OF STRATEGY & GLOBAL EMTOMAS DVORAK,SENIOR ECONOMIST DEBRA D’AGOSTINO,MANAGING DIRECTOR,THOUGHT LEADERSHIPZACK FRIEDMAN,ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR,THOUGHT LEADERSHIPBIANCA FISHER,RESEARCH MANAGER,THOUGHT LEADERSHIP ABOUT OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics was founded in 1981 as a commercial venture with Oxford University’s businesscollege to provide economic forecasting and modelling to UK companies and financial institutionsexpanding abroad. Since then, we have become one of the world’s foremost independent global advisoryfirms, providing reports, forecasts and analytical tools on more than 200 countries, 100 industries sectors,and 8,000 cities and regions. Our best-in-class global economic and industry models and analytical toolsgive us an unparalleled ability to forecast external market trends and assess their economic, social andbusiness impact. Headquartered in Oxford, England, with regional centres in New York, London, Frankfurt, and Singapore,Oxford Economics has offices across the globe in Belfast, Boston, Cape Town, Chicago, Dubai, Dublin,Hong Kong, Los Angeles, Mexico City, Milan, Paris, Philadelphia, Stockholm, Sydney, Tokyo and Toronto.We employ700 staff, including more than450 professional economists, industry experts, and businesseditors—one of the largest teams of macroeconomists and thought leadership specialists. Our global teamis highly skilled in a full range of research techniques and thought leadership capabilities,from econometricmodelling, scenario framing, and economic impact analysis to market surveys, case studies, expert panels,and web analytics. Oxford Economics is a key adviser to corporate, financial and government decision-makers and thoughtleaders. Our worldwide client base now comprises over3,000 international organisations, including leadingmultinational companies and financial institutions; key government bodies and trade associations; and topuniversities, consultancies, and think tanks. CONTENTS SECTION 1.AI AS AN AMPLIFIER OF DEVELOPMENT FUNDAMENTALS.................................31.1.INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................................31.2.DIFFUSING TECHNOLOGY IS THE KEY TO UNLOCKING GROWTH..........................................31.3.AI CAN SPUR A VIRTUOUS CYCLE OF GROWTH.............................................................................4SECTION 2.LABOUR MARKETS, STRUCTURAL LIMITS, AND INEQUALITY IN LICS..............62.1.SECTORAL PATTERNS IN LICS.................................................................................................................62.2.INEQUALITY WITHIN LICS.........................................................................................................................6SECTION 3.AI DIFFUSION: PRACTICAL PATHWAYS THROUGH FINANCE AND ENERGY...7SECTION 4.LONG-TERM TRADE-OFFS AND OPPORTUNITIESTO LEAD................................8 SECTION 1.AI AS AN AMPLIFIER OF DEVELOPMENTFUNDAMENTALS 1.1.INTRODUCTION By common consent,artificialintelligence(AI) is set to be a powerful force shaping the global economy fordecades to come, helping to raise productivity and lift living standards. But AI is not a panacea.AIalso has thepotential to further deepenglobaleconomic inequality if all countries cannotleveragetheimprovements to productivity it offers.Driversof development differences between LICs and HICsCurrent USDtrn While AI is widely available across the globe,unlocking the full economic benefits in lower-income countries will be difficult withoutimproving access to energy and finance. Thecosts of addressing these two obstacles togrowth are large, but so is the benefit to theglobal economy:We estimate that prize at$75 trillion annually—$53trillion fromimproved access to energy and $22trillionaccruing from deeper capital markets. 1.2.DIFFUSING TECHNOLOGY IS THE KEY TO UNLOCKING GROWTH The key to achieving economic scale historically has been the ability to innovate and diffuse technologythroughout the economy. AI is already available broadly, with adoption rates rising, placing the emphasis onthe infrastructure around AI to drive growth forward. That fresh impetus for growth is badly needed.Thedivide between living standards in low-incomecountries(LICs) and high-income countries (HICs) is stark: themedian LIC economy’s GDP per capita is now roughly 11times smaller than in the medianHICeconomy ($4,800vs $54,100) in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms1. Suchdifferences are underpinned by HICs’ access to robustdigital infrastructure, reliable energy sources, stableinvestment capital, and skilled labour.Note that in ouranalysis, LICs excludeeconomies that have undergonestrong development in recent decades such as China,Indonesia,or Malaysia. $75trillion Sizeof the prize resulting from equalisingaccess to energy ($53trn) and finance($22trn) between LICs and HICs. AI is becoming a