Mobileye：增长放缓，估值下调，维持持有

EquitiesAuto Components Hold:Slower ramp,lower valuation Israel ◆Businessstillsolid with industry-leading growth and marginpotential, but theopportunityscale has considerably diminished MAINTAIN HOLD TARGET PRICE(USD)PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)7.5011.00SHARE PRICE(USD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE7.62-1.6%(as of14 Apr 2026) ◆Lack of major SuperVisionbusiness wins,barringVW,limitsmedium-term growth and margin expansion potential ◆Thatwarrantsa lowertarget multiple;retainHold, cut TP toUSD7.50from USD11.00on lower multiple and estimates MARKET DATA Business wins slower than expected:We expected that,with tariffs deals done, OEMswould resume business award activity,which had appeared to slow given associateduncertainty. However,this as ’ p ckpaall ,gBLYascais engaging with multiple OEMs for its products. Weunderstand this is notjusta MBLYproblem, as recalibration of supply chains and business strategies due to a pivot awayfrom EVs could have delayed decision making by OEMs. Erosion of customer interest inSuperVision (L2++ solution) appears to be a biggerissue–over the past 2.5 yearsSuperVision consensus volume expectations for 2026-28e have seen 90-95% cuts. Thisimplies revenue opportunities have been pushed further ahead than expected. Long-term potential but market unlikely to reward it:BLY’sp p lisstrong; at USD24.5bn (over 8years),it is c40-45%above thelevel indicated threeyears back. Robotaxiand humanoids offer long-term growth potentialbut’stooearly to call winners and losers in thesebusinesses. Moreover,achieving scale amidincreasing competition and regulations is likely to be challenging. Whileopportunitiesacagg, w’kss aw llggBLY cwithouttangible proof. 2026 guidance implies a0-5% YoYrevenuegrowth rate,wellbelowthe14% CAGRof 2020-25.Withoutan inflection point in growth,thevaluation couldremain under pressure. Pushkar Tendolkar*Global Autos AnalystHSBCSecurities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedpushkarnarendratendolkar@hsbc.co.in+91 80 4555 2752 Q1 strong but uncertainty later:Q1 2026 results are due on 23 April.The company hasguided for 10m EyeQ unit sales andac19% increase inrevenues. We seelittlerisk tothese targets as the company would have had strong visibility into Q1 whenguiding on22 January. However, the 37m unit indication for EyeQ for 2026 implies someweakeningover theotherquarters, resulting in a sequential decline intheadjusted operating income(AOI) margin from a 13.3% level in Q1 (above the top end of the 8.9-11.1% impliedmargin range based on 2026 revenue and AOI guidance for 2026). Michael Tyndall*, CFASenior Global Autos AnalystHSBC Bank plcmichael.tyndall@hsbc.com+44 20 3359 6301 AliceMartin*Global Autos AnalystHSBC Bank plcalice.martin@hsbc.com+44 20 7992 0175 RetainHold;cut TP to USD7.50from USD11.00:W cBLY’s a j.p. p(AOI)estimates by 11-15% for 2026-28, reflectinglower volume assumptions,particularly forSuperVision. We also increase thediscountwe apply in our valuationBLY’shistorical EV/adj. EBIT multiple of c43x to 50% (from 20% previously) since the current12-month forward implied AOI margin is c50% below the historical level.Ourreducedestimates and target multiple result in a lower TP of USD7.50from USD11.00, implying1.6% downside to the current share price;hence,we maintain our Hold rating. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Issuer of report:HSBC Securities and CapitalMarkets (India) Private Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be readwith the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:Mobileye Global Inc Slowramp-up of Supervision has seenmargins and multiples contract Overall shipment assumptions have declinedfrom peak,but recent trend hasshownsmallupgradeshelpedby business wins However, these wins mostly have been forlowerASP EyeQ and SurroundADAS chips,whereas SuperVision volumes have trailedexpectations Growth and margin profilehave become hockey-sticklike,and the near-termpss… …ssdd-rating oftrading multiples; still higherthan peers with similarmargin profile due to growthand improvement potential Globally,OEMs appear to have slowed their ADAS (esp. L3) ambitions Difficulty in adequatelypricing ADAS content couldhave contributed to OEMsscaling backtheir ambitions See2026 adj. op. income close to midpoint of guidance range Expect 2026AOI margin at around 10%, almost 5ppts down YoY We forecast 2026 adjusted operating profitnear the midpoint of the guidance range of USD170-220m(previously at the top end of the range). Our forecasts imply a 10.2% AOI margin,downc460bps from 14.8% in 2025. The main drivers of this margin evolution are: Volumes:We forecast EyeQ volumes at 37m units,in line withthecpa’sca7.We think the companyhad afair level of visibility for Q1 (10m units guidedat Q4 2025 res