2025年沙特阿拉伯经济展望报告

FEBRUARY  CONTENTS The Key TakeawaysThe Global OutlookRegional OutlookInflationMENA OutlookOil OutlookSaudi Arabia In FocusGrowth outlookMonetary policyBusiness performanceFiscal outlookExternal balance and capital flowLabor marketThings to Watch in 2025Macroeconomic DashboardReferences03040506070809091012151720222324 THE KEYTAKEAWAYS This report provides an analysis of Saudi Arabia'smacroeconomic performance in 2024 and itsprospects for 2025. It evaluates the Kingdom'seconomic performance, labor market, andbusiness environment based on projections madeby the Ministry of Finance and the InternationalMonetary Fund in December 2024. The reportconcludes with highlights of sectors to look out forin the coming year. Below are the key takeaways. Saudi’s oil activities are expected to rebound topositive values in 2025, although the pushback ofthe increase in the OPEC's oil output until Aprilmakes the extent unclear. Oil prices, which remainbelow most GCC breakeven points, are notexpected to increase by a large margin due to thehigh spare capacity of oil producers, while pricedrops are also unlikely due to the price elasticities ofOPEC and shale supply, both of which can beutilized to control changes in energy prices. As the first quarter of the century closes, theambitious global goals to forge sustainableeconomic development need to be revisited, as thegrowth outlook for the world economy is the slowestof any decade since the 1990s. After a sluggish startto the 2020s, the global economy is now regainingmomentum, stabilizing at an annual growth rate ofaround 3% for 2024 and prospectively 2025. Saudi’s fiscal deficit remains an expectation in2025, although at 12.5% lower than last year. TheKingdom continues to borrow to finance itsnon-oil expansionary projects, but its public debtremains sustainable, foreign reserves sizable, andincome streams diversified. Low and stable inflation coupled with low lendingcosts in the Kingdom makes the economy conducivefor private sector consumption and investment,especially in service sectors, which are expectedmaintain their growth trajectories in 2025. Privateconsumption reached an all-time high in 2024,evidenced by the increase in the point-of-sale ande-commerce transactions by 16% and over 25%respectively between 2023 and 2024. While growth gaps between emerging andadvanced economies, as well as between oilimporters and exporters, are narrowing, catchingup is still far. According to the IMF, emergingmarkets are outperforming their developed peers,expecting an average growth rate of 3.1% comparedto the laer’s 1.5%. Meanwhile in the MENA region,the growth rate for both oil importers andexporters is hovering 4%, with that of oil importersmore than doubling year-on-year. Unemployment across genders and nationalities is atrecord lows in the Kingdom, and the labor forceparticipation rate continues its climb, pointing privatesector employment momentum. According to themost recent employment statistics, Saudi is meetingits Vision 2030 targets of cuing the unemploymentrate below 7%, reaching 3.7% in Q4 of 2024. Saudi Arabia’s mission to expand its economybeyond oil remains ongoing. Coming off a pair ofsluggish years, the economy in Saudi Arabia isexpected to rebound and grow by 4.6% accordingto the MoF and by 3.3% according to the IMF. Thisgrowth will be driven by expansions in theKingdom's service industries, principally tourismand hospitality, and an uptick in oil activities. THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK Despite growth divergences in some major economiesin Q4 2024, the global economy is anticipated toremain stable in 2025. The outlook for the global economy in 2025remains stable, with the IMF projecting GDP growthat 3.3% (Figure 1), slightly below the historicalaverage of 3.7%. Still, projections are consistent withthose of 2024, which accurately predicted growthat 3.2%. Across countries, expectations have shifted,especially given the global economy's performancein the third quarter of 2024, which showedlower-than-anticipated growth in some Asian andEuropean economies—particularly China, India,and Germany. These divergences, however, remain concealed by aconsistent global growth profile, held primarily bythe United States' economic performance. As such,post-pandemic global economic expansion isexpected to stay on track, although the globaleconomy seems to be seling at relatively low levelsof growth that fall short off cultivating sustainablesocial and economic gains.1 Figure 1:Global GDP growth rates (Annual change). Source: IMF, 2024. REGIONAL OUTLOOK Emerging markets and developing economies are expected tooutperform advanced economies in 2025, with an average growth rateof 3.1%, compared to advanced economies’ 1.5%. Figure 2:Real GDP Growth for Advanced &Emerging Economies between 2023 and 2025. Among advanced economies, growth forecasts vary. The United States is expected to continueperforming well, with projections placing growth at 2.7% in 2025, while the Euro