沙特阿拉伯：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告

2025ARTICLEIVCONSULTATION—PRESSRELEASEANDSTAFF REPORT Under Article IV of theIMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswithmembers,usuallyeveryyear.Inthecontextofthe2025ArticleIVconsultationwithSaudi Arabia, the following documents have been released and are included in thispackage: •APressReleasesummarizingtheviewsoftheExecutiveBoardasexpressedduringitsJuly28, 2025, consideration of the staff report that concluded the Article IVconsultation with Saudi Arabia. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration on July28, 2025, following discussions that ended onMay 26, 2025,with the officials of Saudi Arabia on economicdevelopments and policies. Based oninformationavailableatthetimeofthesediscussions,thestaffreportwascompletedonJuly 14,2025. •AnInformationalAnnexpreparedbytheIMFstaff. TheIMF’stransparencypolicyallowsforthedeletionofmarket-sensitiveinformationandpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copiesofthisreportareavailabletothepublicfrom InternationalMonetaryFund•PublicationServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.orgWeb:http://www.imf.orgPrice: $18.00 per printed copy InternationalMonetaryFundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes2025Article IV ConsultationwithSaudi Arabia FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE •Saudi Arabia’s economy has demonstrated strong resilience to shocks, with non-oileconomic activities expanding, inflationcontained, and unemployment reaching record-low levels. •Despite heightened uncertainty and declining commodity prices,the outlook remainsstrong with risks to the downside. External and fiscal buffers remain ample, even ascurrent account and fiscal deficitspersist over the medium term. •Given the current heightened global uncertainty,pursuing a countercyclical fiscal stance iscrucial. Addressing strong credit is important to mitigate risks to systemic financialstability.At the same time, structural reforms are essential to sustain non-oil growth anddrive economic diversification, irrespective of oil price developments. Washington, DC-August 4, 2025:OnJuly 28, 2025theExecutive Board of the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation forSaudi Arabia.1 As its economic diversification advances, Saudi Arabia has shown strong resilience to externalshocks. In 2024, non-oil real GDP grew by 4.5percent, driven by retail, hospitality, andconstruction, while OPEC+ production cuts held oil output at 9 mbpd, causing a 4.4 percentdecline in oil GDP and moderating overall growth to2.0percent. Inflation remained contained,with housing rent increases continuing to decelerate. Unemployment among Saudi nationalshit a record low, with youth and female unemployment rates halved over four years. Thecurrent account shifted to a 0.5% of GDPdeficit from a 2.9 percent of GDP surplus in 2023,increasingly financed by external borrowing and reduced foreign asset accumulation. Despitethese shifts, Saudi Central Bank’s net foreign assets stabilized at $415 billion, covering 187percent of the IMF’s reserve adequacy metric. The banking sector remained strong, markedby high capitalization, profitability, and nonperforming loans at their lowest since 2016. Amid heightened uncertainty and weakened commodity prices, robust domestic demand,including government-led projects, will continue to keep non-oil growth above 3.5 percent overthe medium term. This reflects the ongoing implementation of Vision 2030 projects and majorinternational events. Overall, real GDP is projected to accelerate to 3.9 percent by 2026,supported by the continued phase-out of OPEC+ production cuts. Inflation is expected toremain contained, while the current account deficit is projected to persist over the medium term due to increased investment-linked imports and remittance outflows. Reserve buffers willremain appropriate, with the current account deficit expected to be financed through depositdrawdowns, less FX asset accumulation abroad, and higher external borrowing The near-term outlook faces downside risks, including weaker oil demand due to global tradetensions, lower government spending, and regional security risks that could dampen investorsentiment. On the upside, higher oil production or additional investments linked to Vision2030 initiatives would support growth, and oil prices could rise if the global recoverystrengthens or in the case of disruptions to the global supply of oil. Executive Board Assessment2 Executive Directors commended Saudi Arabia’s strong economic performance despiteelevated globaluncertainty and external shocks, buttressed by ongoing reforms under Vision2030 to diversify the Saudi economy. Directors welcomed the robust non-oil economic activity,low inflation, and record-low unemployment. Despite high uncertainty and the emergenceoftwin deficits, the outlook remains favorabl