伊拉克：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告；和信息附件

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE;STAFF REPORT;ANDINFORMATIONAL ANNEX Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswithmembers, usually every year. In the context of the 2025Article IV consultation withIraq, the following documents have been released and are included in this package: •APress Release. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration ona lapse of time basis, following discussions that ended onMay 13,2025, with the officials ofIraqon economic developments and policies. Based oninformation available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completedonJune 11, 2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. The documents listed below have been or will be separately released. Selected Issues TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public fromInternational Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes2025Article IV Consultation withIraq FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Washington, DC–July 9,2025:The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund(IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation1withIraq andconsidered andendorsed the staffappraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis2. •Iraq has managed to uphold domestic stability despite regional turmoil and globaluncertainty. At the same time, thenon-oileconomysloweddown in 2024following a verystrong growth in 2023.Inflation has remainedsubdued amid weaker demand.Financingconstraintsand loweroilrevenuesare expected toconstrain fiscal spending,takinganadditional toll on economic activity. •Against a baselineof low oil prices, fiscal deficits and externalaccountsare projected todeteriorate furtherover the medium term unless significant reforms are undertaken toincrease non-oil revenues, control the public wage bill, and boost non-oil growth potentialthrough an ambitious structural reform agenda. Executive Board Assessment Iraq’s economy is facing considerable headwinds. Iraq's non-oil sector growth slowed from13.8 percent in 2023 to an estimated 2.5 percent in 2024, impacted by reduced publicinvestment, a weaker trade balance, and financing constraints that led to the accumulation ofarrears. Going forward, financing constraints, subdued investment and constrained growthpotential are expected to weigh on growth and intensify preexisting fragilities. The large fiscal expansion in recent years has increased Iraq’s vulnerabilities, which arefurther exacerbated by the recent decline in oil prices. As spending expanded and non-oilrevenues stagnated, the oil price required to balance the budget increasedto around $84 in2024, up from $54 in 2020. The financing constraints that emerged in 2024 are expected toworsen this year in light of the oil price drop. Furthermore, risks of sovereign debt stress haverisen, calling for urgent policy action. A sizable fiscal adjustment is needed to mitigate macro-fiscal risks, contain liquidity risks andstabilize debt in the medium term. In the very short term, the authorities should reviewcurrentand capital spending plans for 2025 and limit or postpone all non-essential expenditure. There is also scope to boost non-oil revenues through increases in excises and custom duties.Over the medium term, stabilizing debt would require an additional fiscal consolidation of 1–1.5percent of non-oil GDP per year. On the revenue side, besides strengthening tax administration, there is scope to increasecustoms duties and excise taxes, reform personal income tax including by limiting exemptions,and introducing a general sales tax in the medium term. On the spendingside, comprehensivepublic wage bill reforms through limiting mandatory hiring and adopting an attrition rule wouldyield significant savings. Recent efforts to better target the public distribution system arewelcome, but there is scope to further improvetargeting and eventually shift to cash-basedsocial safety nets. Finally, it is urgent to reform the public pension system by raising theretirement age and reducing both the accrual and replacement rates. Implementing the proposed reforms could generate fiscal space for increased non-oil capitalspending. Crucial non-oil capital expenditures should be protected given the need to expandinvestment in trade and transportation infrastructure to promote economic diversification; andmodernize the electricity sector and develop natural gas resources, which are crucial forenhancing energy security and decreasing reliance on gas imports. Additionally, improvingprocurement, public financial management, and addressing corruption woul