伯利兹：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告；伯利兹执行主任的发言

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE;STAFF REPORT; AND STATEMENT BY THEALTERNATEEXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR BELIZE Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2025Article IV consultation withBelize, the following documents have been released and are included in this package: •APress Releasesummarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during itsSeptember10, 2025consideration of the staff report that concluded the Article IVconsultation withBelize. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration onSeptember 10, 2025, following discussions that ended onJuly 11,2025, with the officials ofBelizeon economic developments and policies. Based oninformation available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completedonJuly 28, 2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. •AStatement by theAlternateExecutive DirectorforBelize. TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes2025Article IV ConsultationwithBelize FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE •The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the 2025 ArticleIV consultation withBelizeonSeptember 10, 2025. •After a remarkable recovery following the pandemic, growthhasslowed,while inflationhas decelerated, and the public debt-to-GDP ratio has declined sharply.IMF staff expectsgrowth to converge to its potential of about 2 percent over the medium term, reflectingcapacity constraints.The public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to fall more slowly,requiring additional fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancing structural reforms to reducedebt to 50 percent of GDP by 2030. •Policy priorities include revenue mobilization and reprioritization of expenditure; greaterspending in priority areas; expanded access to finance; accelerating growth-enhancingand structural reforms; and building resilience to natural disasters. Washington, DC–September 15, 2025:The Executive Board of the International MonetaryFund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation forBelize.1Theauthorities have consentedto the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.2 Belize has experienced a remarkable recovery following the pandemic. After expanding by30.6 percent between 2021 and 2023, real GDP grew by 8.1 percent in 2024, driven bypositive developments in tourism, trade, and transport. At the same time, inflationcontinues tomoderate, slowing to 1.0 percent in May 2025 from 4.0 percent in May 2024, owing todecelerations across most categories. This strong nominal growth, combined with expenditurecontrol and a sharp recovery in government revenues, improved the primary balance to 1.7percent of GDP in FY2024. In turn, public debt fell sharply to 61.1 percent of GDP in 2024,after peaking at 103.3 percent of GDP in 2020, also supported by a debt-for-marine protectionswap and a negotiated discount on the debt withPetrocaribe. Real GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 1.5 percent in 2025—due largely to a slowdownin tourism and a weak agricultural sector performance—and is projected to gradually convergeto its potential of about 2 percent over the medium term, absent expanded hotel and flight capacity. As inflationary pressures from key trading partners and global oil prices weaken,inflation is expected to converge to 1.3 percent, and the current account deficit is expected tonarrow to about 1.2 percent of GDP over the medium term from 1.5 percent in 2024.International reserves are expected to rise to about 4 months of imports (from 3.5 in 2024) butwill remain below the ARA metric by 2030. Risks to the growth outlook remain tilted to thedownside, and stem mainly from higher global policy uncertainty, increased trade barriers,higher-for-longer global interest rates, and increased or sustained climate-related disasters.However, the successful implementation of several large infrastructure projects could pushmedium-term growth higher. Executive Board Assessment3 Executive Directorswelcomed the strong recovery following the Covid 19 pandemic and theimproved social outcomes and financial stability. Directors highlighted that growth is expectedto decelerate sharply in 2025, before converging to its potential over the medium term. Notingthe downside risks stemming from high exposure to external risksand increased globaluncertainty, Directors stressed the need to reduce public debt and accelerate reforms tounlock potential growth and build resilience