蒙古：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告；蒙古候补执行主任的发言

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE;STAFF REPORT; AND STATEMENT BY THEALTERNATEEXECUTIVE DIRECTORFOR MONGOLIA Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2025Article IV consultation withMongolia, the following documents have been released and are included inthis package: •APress Releasesummarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during itsSeptember 5, 2025consideration of the staff report that concluded the Article IVconsultation withMongolia. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration onSeptember 5, 2025, following discussions that ended onJune18,2025, with the officials ofMongoliaon economic developments and policies.Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report wascompleted onJuly 23, 2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. •AStatement by theAlternateExecutive DirectorforMongolia. TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes2025Article IV ConsultationwithMongolia FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Washington, DC–September15, 2025:On September 5, 2025, the Executive Board of theInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) completed theArticle IV Consultation for Mongolia1 A booming mining sector in 2023-24 significantly bolstered exports and fiscal revenues,underpinning robust economic growth and lower external and fiscal vulnerabilities. However,coal exports declined markedly in the first half of 2025, resulting in a widening current accountdeficit, reduced budget revenues, and depreciation pressures. After peaking in February 2025,headline inflation moderated to 8.2 percent by June. Credit growth in both the banking andnonbank financial sectors remains high, despite some recent moderation. The newgovernment, formed in June 2025, has signaled policy continuity. In response to revenueshortfalls, it submitted an amended budget to Parliament aimed at reducing expenditures andensuring compliance with the structural fiscal deficit limit. Growth in 2025 is projected to rise to 5.5 percent, supported by a strong recovery in theagriculture sector. Mining output is expected to remain robust, driven by increased productionofhigher-grade copper concentrate at Oyu Tolgoi. However, a sharp decline in coal exports—primarily due to lower prices—is expected to widen both the current account and fiscal deficits.Growth is projected to remain around 5½ percent in 2026. Inflation is anticipated to stay abovethe BOM target band until 2026. Over the medium term, growth is projected to graduallyconverge to its potential of about 5 percent. Current account deficits are forecast to persist,reflecting the high import intensity of investment projects and continued strong consumergoods imports. Downside risks to the outlook have increased, stemming from uncertainties in Chinese coaldemand and larger-than-expected declines in coal prices. Policy slippages could underminereform progress, particularly amid growing pressures to accelerate and broaden thedistribution of mining benefits by reducing non-mineral tax collections and exempting largeinvestment projects from the fiscal rules. Executive Board Assessment2 Executive Directors noted the strong growth and fiscal surpluses achieved in 2023−2024,which helped reduce Mongolia’s vulnerabilities. Directors underscored, however, that thenear-term outlook has become less favorable, with rising downside risks from lower coalprices and greater global uncertainty. Against this backdrop, they called for prudentmacroeconomic policies to restore external and internal balances and for structural reforms toachieve diversified and sustainable growth. Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to meeting the structural deficit limit throughexpenditure restraint, which is reflected in the supplementary 2025 budget. They emphasizedthe need to create fiscal space by broadening the non-mining tax baseand to implementmega capital projects within the fiscal rules and after careful prioritization. Directorsencouraged the authorities to ensure that the tax package currently under review reducesreliance on volatile mining revenues and safeguards fiscalsustainability. They also stressedthe importance of avoiding frequent changes to fiscal rules to preserve their credibility.Directors encouraged the authorities to expand domestic debt issuance to develop domesticdebt markets and enhance monetary policytransmission. Directors called on the Bank of Mon