波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告；员工补充；波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那候补执行主任的发言

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE;STAFF REPORT;STAFF SUPPLEMENT;AND STATEMENTBY THEALTERNATEEXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FORBOSNIAAND HERZEGOVINA Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2025Article IV consultation withBosnia and Herzegovina, the following documents have been released and areincluded inthis package: •APress Releasesummarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during itsAugust 27, 2025consideration of the staff report that concluded the Article IVconsultation withBosnia and Herzegovina. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration onAugust 27, 2025, following discussions that ended onJuly 1, 2025,with the officials ofBosnia and Herzegovinaon economic developments and policies.Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report wascompleted onJuly28, 2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. •AStaff Supplementupdating information on recent developments. •AStatement by theAlternateExecutive DirectorforBosnia and Herzegovina. The document listed below will be separately released. Selected Issues TheIMF’s transparency policyallows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation withBosnia and Herzegovina FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE •Growth has remained resilient despite a challenging environment and is projected at 2.4percent in 2025. Downside risks are elevated, including trade tensions, weaker externaldemand, heightened domestic political tensions and policy slippages ahead of the 2026elections. •Fiscal policy should focus on medium-term consolidation, rebuilding buffers, and improving thequality of public spending, supported by a strong structural reform agenda. •Safeguarding central bank independence, strengthening its policy toolkit, enhancingmacroprudential oversight, and closely monitoring financial sector risks are essential topreserving the currency board arrangement and ensuring financial stability. Washington, DC – August 27, 2025:The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund(IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for Bosnia and Herzegovina.1The authorities haveconsented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation. Growth has remained resilient despite domestic and global challenges. It accelerated to 2.5percent in 2024 (2023: 2.0 percent). While political uncertainty dampened Q1 consumption, high-frequency indicators point to a recovery from Q2, with growth expected to ease slightly to 2.4percent in 2025 before returning to its potential of 3 percent by 2027, driven by consumption andexports. After rapidly receding to 1.7 percent in 2024 (2023: 6.1 percent), average headlineinflation picked up to 2.3 percent in May 2025, while core inflation remained broadly stable at about4 percent. Inflation is forecast to rise to 3.8 percent in 2025 due to higher imported food prices,before stabilizing at 2 percent over the medium term. The external position is expected to remain broadly unchanged in 2025, while credit growthis projected to moderate somewhat. The current account deficit is expected to widen to 4.1percent of GDP, from 4.0 percent of GDP in 2024, with a recovery in electricity exports after lastyear’s droughts, and lower oil prices offsetting adverse effects of U.S. tariffs on exports. Grossinternational reserves reached €9 billion, 6.9 months of imports, providing adequate coverage forthe currency board arrangement. Private credit growth is projected to slow to 7.7 percent in 2025,slightly outpacing nominal GDP growth. The outlook is subject to downside risks. Trade uncertainty, a slowdown in Europe, volatilecommodity prices, tighter global financial conditions, and further escalation of political tensionspose significant downside risks to growth. Strong growth in real wages and private sector creditcould put upward pressure on inflation. Policy slippages ahead of the 2026 elections could worsen the fiscal position and the current account deficit. On the upside, progress on EU accession wouldboost investor confidence and growth. Executive Board Assessment2 Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They noted that, while growth hasremained resilient amid a challenging domestic and external environment, it continues to fall shortof potential, hindering Bosnia and Herzegovina’s swift convergence with the EU. Given elevateddownside risks, Directors underscored the import