经合组织经济展望，2025年3月中期报告：通过不确定性进行指导

Steering through Uncertainty March 2025 Steering through Uncertainty March 2025 This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed andarguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Member countries of the OECD. This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty overany territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use ofsuch data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements inthe West Bank under the terms of international law. Note by the Republic of Türkiye The information in this document with reference to “Cyprus” relates to the southern part of the Island. There is no singleauthority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Türkiye recognises the Turkish Republic ofNorthern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United Nations, Türkiyeshall preserve its position concerning the “Cyprus issue”. Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European UnionThe Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Türkiye. Theinformation in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus. ISBN 978-92-64-83387-6 (PDF)ISBN 978-92-64-81411-0 (HTML) OECD Economic OutlookISSN 0474-5574 (print)ISSN 1609-7408 (online) Photo credits:Cover © Michalakis Ppalis/Shutterstock.com. Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found at: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/support/corrigenda.html.© OECD 2025 Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. By using this work, you accept to be bound by the terms of this licence(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Attribution– you must cite the work.Translations– you must cite the original work, identify changes to the original and add the following text:In the event of any discrepancy between the original work and thetranslation, only the text of original work should be considered valid.Adaptations– you must cite the original work and add the following text:This is an adaptation of an original work by the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed inthis adaptation should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its Member countries.Third-party material– the licence does not apply to third-party material in the work. If using such material, you are responsible for obtaining permission from the third party and forany claims of infringement.You must not use the OECD logo, visual identity or cover image without express permission or suggest the OECD endorses your use of the work.Any dispute arising under this licence shall be settled by arbitration in accordance with the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) Arbitration Rules 2012. The seat of arbitration shallbe Paris (France). The number of arbitrators shall be one. Table of contents Steering through uncertainty 4 SummaryRecent developmentsProjectionsRisks and challengesPolicy requirementsTechnical Appendix 18 23 FIGURES Figure1. Global growth has held up but some signs of weakening have begun to appear8Figure2. Consumer confidence remains weak and economic policy uncertainty has spiked in advancedeconomies9Figure3. The direct impact of merchandise trade tensions varies across countries10Figure4. Unemployment rates remain relatively low and nominal wage growth is still elevated11Figure5. Inflation is rising again in an increasing share of economies12Figure6. Household inflation expectations have recently risen in some countries13Figure7. Global growth is projected to weaken14Figure8. Growth is projected to be stronger and inflation lower in a scenario with fewer tariff increases15Figure9. Further trade fragmentation would harm global growth prospects17Figure10. Policy interest rates are projected to ease only gradually18Figure11. Public debt levels have increased20Figure12. Opportunities exist to raise living standards by lowering trade barriers21Figure13. There is scope for further regulatory reforms that would promote productivity growth22Figure14.Global change in export volumes under higher tariffs23 TABLES Table1. Global growth is projected to moderate5Table2. Headline inflation is projected to decline in most countries6Table3. Core inflation is projected to remain above target in several economies7 Steering through uncertainty Summary •Global output growth remainedresilient in2024, with robust expansions inthe United States andseveral largeemerging-marketeconomies,including China.•