经合组织经济展望，2024年9月中期报告：转折点

SEPTEMBER 2024 Turning the Corner September 2024 This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed andarguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Member countries of the OECD. This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty overany territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use ofsuch data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements inthe West Bank under the terms of international law. Note by the Republic of Türkiye The information in this document with reference to “Cyprus” relates to the southern part of the Island. There is no singleauthority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Türkiye recognises the Turkish Republic ofNorthern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United Nations, Türkiyeshall preserve its position concerning the “Cyprus issue”. Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European UnionThe Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Türkiye. Theinformation in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus. ISBN 978-92-64-66836-2 (PDF)ISBN 978-92-64-95204-1 (HTML)ISBN 978-92-64-86817-5 (epub) OECD Economic OutlookISSN 0474-5574 (print)ISSN 1609-7408 (online) Photo credits:Cover © Pavel1964/shutterstock.com. Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found at: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/support/corrigenda.html.© OECD 2024 Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. By using this work, you accept to be bound by the terms of this licence(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Attribution– you must cite the work.Translations– you must cite the original work, identify changes to the original and add the following text:In the event of any discrepancy between the original work and thetranslation, only the text of original work should be considered valid.Adaptations– you must cite the original work and add the following text:This is an adaptation of an original work by the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed inthis adaptation should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its Member countries.Third-party material– the licence does not apply to third-party material in the work. If using such material, you are responsible for obtaining permission from the third party and forany claims of infringement.You must not use the OECD logo, visual identity or cover image without express permission or suggest the OECD endorses your use of the work.Any dispute arising under this licence shall be settled by arbitration in accordance with the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) Arbitration Rules 2012. The seat of arbitration shallbe Paris (France). The number of arbitrators shall be one. Table of contents Turning the corner4 SummaryRecent developmentsProjectionsRisks and challengesPolicy requirements 47141516 Tables Table1. Global growth is projected to remain around its recent pace5Table2. Headline inflation is projected to decline further6Table3. Core inflation is projected to return to target in most economies7 Figures Figure1. Stable global growth has masked differences across countries8Figure2. Real wages have increased in many countries as inflation has eased, but purchasing power has notfully recovered8Figure3. Global trade growth has picked up recently9Figure4. Labour demand has cooled10Figure5. Inflation is increasingly moving back towards target12Figure6. Services inflation will need to decline further to bring inflation to target12Figure7. Housing transactions have begun to recover in some economies13Figure8. G20 economies are projected to have moderate growth and easing inflation15Figure9. Real interest rates remain restrictive and economic surprises could cause financial market volatility16Figure10. Policy interest rates are projected to decline gradually17Figure11. Spending restraint, enhanced revenues and budgetaryreforms are key policy priorities to ensuredebt sustainability18Figure12. A few countries have undertaken notable competition-enhancing reforms19Figure13. Services sectors regulations remain overly stringent in some countries20Figure14. Product market reforms have the potential to boost living standards21 Turning the corner Summary •Globaloutputgrowthhasremainedresilientand inflationhas continued to moderate.Growth hasbeenrelativelyrobust inmany G20 countries includingthe United States, Brazil, Ind