2025年德国房地产市场报告：新建住宅缩减 办公零售市场分化（英）

Decline in new construction on housing marketMarked differences between office space and retail sectors TABLE OF CONTENTS 02Preface 03Summery06Economic conditions in Germany07Construction activity is slowing down significantly08Special topic: hotel real estate in Germany14Turnaround in real estate investment?16Retail properties30Office properties45Multi-family houses53Glossary54Imprint58DZ HYP locations PREFACE Dear readers, The last few years have been quite a challenge for the German real estate market.In 2025, market performance continues to be hampered by factors such as theweakness of the German economy and structural change impacting individualasset classes. However, the overall outlook is noticeably brighter, not least becausevaluation mark-downs are set to come to an end. At the same time, the marketsare becoming increasingly heterogeneous. Here, a more differentiated pictureemerges not just when comparing different segments but also when examiningthe growing impact of various influencing factors within the different asset classes.This real estate market report analyses the development of the retail, office andresidential segments at the top locations in Germany – Hamburg, Berlin,Dusseldorf, Cologne, Frankfurt/Main, Stuttgart and Munich. The study shows how the housing market is being shaped by high demand ata time when construction project and completion numbers are declining. Thisdivergence is affecting the top locations in particular, its impact also dependingon factors such as migration numbers, supply structure and vacancy rates. Themarkets for office and retail properties are undergoing fundamental structuralchanges. Faced with changing requirements, more and more existing propertiesare failing to supply what the market demands. The first signs of a revival were seen on the investment markets in mid-2024,mainly on account of falling interest rates. After a significant increase, rental yieldsstabilised at higher levels, which also put an end to valuation corrections. This study includes a section that examines current developments on the realestate market for hotels. Despite difficult economic conditions, the hotel industryis enjoying steady growth in the number of overnight stays. At the same time,the industry is faced with cost increases and a shortage of skilled workers – bothfactors that drive market concentration. The 2025 German real estate market report is available in both Germanand English. All current reports can be downloaded from our website(onwww.dzhyp.de/en/about-us/market-research/). Yours faithfully, DZ HYP March 2025 SUMMARY »A number of negative factors have proved challenging for the real estate marketin recent years, leading to a sharp decline in valuations. The motto “Survive till‘25” has not only helped the market through the crisis, but has also provedaccurate since the correction came to an end in 2024. Higher interest rates,climate investment and the structural change caused by home working and e-commerce have now been priced in. Real estate investment - which hasdeclined sharply - could also pick up pace again gradually in 2025 with theprospect of several interest rate cuts by the ECB. The 17th issue of our market reportshows that although conditionsremain challenging in the real estatemarket, the outlook has brightened »However, conditions remain fragile for commercial real estate, partly due to theongoing economic slowdown. Potential risks include further funds outflows fromopen-ended real estate funds and unfavourable rental prospects for many oldercommercial properties. Modernization is also being hampered by financingconstraints due to a decline in valuations, higher interest rates and potentialvacant properties. »Residential properties offer the best prospects, not only because there is alreadya housing shortage and the construction crisis is restricting supply even further.Unlike companies which can successfully manage their business with less officeor shop space, people need living space. Even apartments in less attractivelocations or with obvious deficiencies can still be easily let, while concessionshave to be made to potential tenants for commercial real estate outside thesmall segment of modern and sought-after space. »Residential rents show consistently strong growth, whereas retail rents haveat best stopped falling, and the office market is characterized by an increasingnumber of vacant properties. In this respect, it could also gradually becomemore difficult to achieve significantly higher rents in the prime segment. »However, there is potential in all segments of the real estate market. Premisesare needed for working, to sell products, or for housing, and are correspondinglyin demand. The prospects are particularly good in the seven largest cities:Berlin, Cologne, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich and Stuttgart.This is reflected in the17th issue of our market report on the leadingGerman real estate locations. As usual, we focus