亚洲基金经理调查：能源风险与通胀担忧

Energy risks and inflation fears 14 April 2026 BofA April Asia Fund Manager SurveySpotlight: Energy security risks dominate investor concerns, with 91% highly or Equity StrategyAsia Pacific extremely worried. Net 77% now expect higher inflation (4-year high). Our economistbelievesdisruptions to energy markets will remain (see note)even if ceasefire persists.55% believe AI’s impact on equities is priced in or even over-valued. Macro: Asia’s growth outlook swings from optimism (previously net 25%) to pessimism(55%)–seeExhibit 2. Our economics team recentlytrimmed Asia’s growth by 40bp to4.3% in 2026 (see note). Net 5% anticipate a weaker economy for Japan (from 50%expecting stronger previously). BoJ ratehike expectations are evenly split between Aprand Jun (32% each), while our Japan economistviews Apr as the base case (see note). Kaspar Lam>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)kaspar.lam@bofa.com Themes: AI and semis remain the most dominant theme in China. Net 45% expect astronger semis cycle over the next 12 months (up MoM from 14%). Broadening supplychain and tightening supply bottlenecks were two key takeaways from our APAC TechConference in the week of Mar 16. Masashi Akutsu>>StrategistBofAS Japanmasashi.akutsu@bofa.com Winnie Wu>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)winnie.wu@bofa.com Positioning: North Asia markets (Japan, Taiwan, Korea) remain most favored byinvestors. India shifts from Neutral to the most Underweight region (net 36%),consistent with ourNifty earnings cut to 8.5% YoY (see note), well below consensus.Energy leapfrogged from Neutral to the most preferred sector, followed by semis, techhardware in APAC ex-Japan. Semis (AI play) and Banks (key beneficiary of higher interestrates) continue to rank among investor favorites in Japan. FMS: Fund Manager SurveyAPAC: Asia Pacific Notes to readers Exhibit1:Overwhelming concernaboutenergy security risksHow concerned are you about energy security risks for the Asia Pacific region in the A total of193 panelists with $563bnAUM participated in the April survey.170 participants with $511bn AUMresponded to the Global FMS questionsand 90 participants with $247bn AUMresponded to the Regional FMSquestions. current geopolitical environment? Survey period:2 Apr–9 Apr 2026 How to join the FMS panel Investors/clients are encouraged tosign up to participate in the Survey.This can be done by contactingMichaelHartnettor your BofA salesrepresentative. Participants in the survey receive thefull set of results for the months inwhich they participate. Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets andthe financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 12 to 13.12958191 Timestamp: 14 April 2026 12:30AM EDT Macro Exhibit2: Growth expectationsslipped into negative territory, with investors more pessimisticon APAC ex-Japan than on Global marketsNet % expecting a stronger Global / APAC ex-Japan economy Exhibit3:Inflation expectations remain elevated, with a net 77% of respondents anticipatinghigher inflation over the next 12 months, the highest level since Apr 2022Net % expecting higher inflation in Asia Pacific ex-Japan in the next 12 months Exhibit4:Corporate profit expectations drop significantly,net45% expectweakerprofits for theAPAC ex-Japan region (12thpercentile of its history)Net % expecting better corporate profits in Asia Pacific ex-Japanin the next 12 months Net % deeming consensus EPS estimates for the coming year as high Net % expecting a stronger Chinese economy in the next 12 months When do you think the BOJ next rate hike will be? When do you think the BOJ next rate hike will be? Expected Returns and Valuations FMS view ofexpected upside forAsia Pac ex-Japan equities over the next 12 months FMS view ofexpected upside forJapan equities over the next 12 months Themes FMS viewofTWO most favorite themes in China Exhibit15:Policy normalization, corporate reforms, and earningshold the key to the prospect forJapan stocksFMS view of the themes that hold the key for Japan equities in the near-to-medium term FMS view of the efficacy of the ‘Corporate Value-Up Program' in Korea Positioning Exhibit18:Inves