亚洲基金经理调查

Goldilocks.GlobalgrowthexpectationscontinuedtostrengtheninDecember,reachingafour-yearhigh,whileAPACex-Japaneconomicprospectsheldnearone-yearhighs.Japan’sgrowthoutlookclimbedtoasurveypeak.Inflationforecastsremainsubdued,givingAsiaex-Japancentralbanksroomtomaintainaneasingbias. 16December2025 EquityStrategyAsiaPacific Moderatingexpectations.Investorsretainapositivemarketbiasbuthavetemperedreturnexpectations.Optimismisanchoredinarobustcorporateprofitrebound,yetvaluationsabovelong-termaveragestemperenthusiasmforoutsizedgains. Thesteadywinner.Japanremainstheregion’sclearfavorite,consistentlytoppingpreferencerankingssinceitsinclusioninOctober2023.ViewsonTakaichi’spolicyimpactremainpositive,withshort-termpullbackslargelyseenashealthyconsolidationforthecontinuationoftherally.Withlong-termratestrendingsteadilyhigher,investorsfavorbanksalongsidesemis,thelatterdrivenbyAItheme.However,giventhe~50%rallysinceAprillows,investorsmaintainapragmaticoutlookonpotentialreturns. RiteshSamadhiya,CFA>>EquityStrategistMerrillLynch(HongKong)+85235087907ritesh.samadhiya@bofa.com WinnieWu>>ResearchAnalystMerrillLynch(HongKong)+85235083058winnie.wu@bofa.com Lifeaftertherebound.FollowingsixmonthsofimprovingsentimentsinceLiberation-dayshock,China’sgrowthmomentumhasstalled.Thelong-termstructuralviewisnolongergrim.Yet,withvaluationsnolongersupportive,investorsawaitconcretesignsofstimulativepolicybeforeaddingexposure.Householdriskappetiteiswaning,withashifttowardsavingsoverinvesting.Consequently,allocationshaveslippedtounderweight. MasashiAkutsu>>StrategistBofASJapan+81362257754masashi.akutsu@bofa.com Indiaup,Chinadown.India,afterfallingtothebottomofthepackinAugust,hasslowlyclimbedbacktomildoverweight,likelyservingasadiversificationplayagainstAI-drivenmarkets.AlongsideJapanandIndia,FMSremainspositiveonTaiwanandKorea,buoyedbyelevatedsemiscycleexpectations.Despiterecentvolatility,AI,internet,anti-involution,andKorea’scorporatevalue-upprogram,continuetodominatepositioning. GinaWu>>StrategistMerrillLynch(HongKong)+85235088008gina.wu@bofa.com FMS:FundManagerSurveyAPAC:AsiaPacificAA:AssetAllocationLT:Long-term AsiaPacificmarketsentiment:Net%FMSinvestorsoverweight(%overweight-%underweight) Notestoreaders Atotalof238panellistswith$550bnAUMparticipatedintheDecembersurvey.203participantswith$569bnAUMrespondedtotheGlobalFMSquestionsand119participantswith$293bnAUMrespondedtotheRegionalFMSquestions. Surveyperiod:5Dec–11Dec2025 HowtojointheFMSpanel Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst Investors/clientsareencouragedtosignuptoparticipateintheSurvey.ThiscanbedonebycontactingMichaelHartnettoryourBofAsalesrepresentative. under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page11to13.12913047 Participantsinthesurveyreceivethefullsetofresultsforthemonthsinwhichtheyparticipate. Timestamp:16December202512:40AMEST Exhibit2:Global growth expectationsat4-year high, Asia consolidatesnear1-year highsNet % FMS investors expecting a stronger Global / Asia Pacificex-Japan economy Exhibit3:Inflation expectationsstay nearhistorical lows (22ndpercentile)Net % FMS investors expecting higher inflation inAsia Pacific ex-Japanin the next 12 months Exhibit4:Asia ex-Japan equitiesreturns expectationsmoderating to long-term averageFMS view of Asia Pacex-Japan equities over the next 12 months Expected upside for Asia Pac ex-Japan equities over the next 12 months Exhibit5:Corporate profit expectationscontinue to rise:net41% expectstrongerprofits for theAPAC ex-Japan region, highest since October 2024Net % FMS investors expecting better corporate profits in Asia Pacific ex-Japanin the next 12 months Exhibit 6: Survey respondents don’t consider consensus earnings estimates as high – leavingscopefor upgrades in the futureNet % FMS investors deeming consensus EPS estimates for the coming year as high Exhibit7:FMS seesregional equities tobe moderately overvalued, compared to the history, aconsequence of huge rally YTDNet % FMS investors saying Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities are overvalued Exhibit8:China’s growth outlookhas stabilized following the rebound, with net3% expecting astrongereconomy (from 29% expectingweakereconomy last month)