LVMH：2026年第一季度电话会议要点

Luca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE Maria Meita+44 20 7170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperform Yi-Peng Khoo, CFA+44 20 7676 6822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com Price Target MC.FP 600.00 EUR(685.00OLD) Eric Chen, CFA+852 2123 2628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com LVMH: Highlights from the 1Q26 conference call LVMH reported its 1Q26 results today. This report contains key points from its investorconference call.Results Quick Take:LVMH 1Q26: Party postponed Close Date13 Apr 2026MC.FP Close Price (EUR)481.75Price Target (EUR)600.00Upside/(Downside)25%52-Week Range654.70/436.55EDME1,523.92FYEDecDiv Yield2.7%Market Cap (EUR) (M)239,761EV (EUR) (M)264,098 Key messages:We believe performance at LVMH is improving where it matters: (1) with Dior,where a creative revival has helped propel growth above the F&LG average of -2%, (2) withthe Chinese, where local spending is growing and overseas spending improving, and (3) withthe Americans, where strong momentum will be supported by a touch easier comps (aroundLiberation Day) and a gradual paring back of last year’s Takashi Murakami activations over2Q. The quarter should also help put any doubts on Louis Vuitton’s resilience to bed. Near-term uncertainty and headwinds risk obscuring these underlying improvements:War in the Middle East represented a -100bps drag on Group OSG, and-200bps on F&LG, in 1Q26. If the war were to persist throughout 2Q26, we would expect asimilar to slightly higher headwind, with a longer impact period mitigated by a partial recoveryin local spending and a potential repatriation of demand elsewhere. Demand trends - thoughreportedly positive ex. the Middle East - will also become more difficult as macroeconomicuncertainty and inflationary pressures prevail, especially for the middle-class, where LVMHplays the most. Margin pressures from FX and weaker top-line growth remain. Investment Implications We update our forecasts for 1Q26’s reported figures.We trim our OSG forecasts forF&LG by -240bps to +2.4% in FY26 (-32bps below consensus) to reflect 1Q26’s lower thanexpected growth. We continue to expect positive underlying momentum at F&LG over theremainder of FY26, but at a lower altitude. Our Group OSG forecasts fall -78bps to +3.1%(+11bps above consensus). Our FY26 EBIT% forecasts fall -57bps to 21.7% (vs. 22% inFY25). We remain relatively constructive on margins - FX may represent a -80bps headwindin 1H26, but margin stabilization seems to be management’s priority. Disposals at DFS,underlying improvements across key divisions, and continuing cost-efficiency measures willhelp. This leads to a -3.3% fall in our FY26 EPS forecasts (-2% below consensus). We continue to value LVMH on a target 1.8x relative P/E multiple to the MSCI Europe, appliedto a blended forward EPS forecast on an NTM+1 basis. This is equivalent to a 22x NTM+1 P/E (vs. 25x before, reflecting a compression in the market multiple). This lands at the mid-pointof LVMH’s traditional valuation trading range. We rate LVMH Outperform, PT €600.00. DETAILS BUSINESS UPDATE Key moving parts to consider for 1Q26 - with a readacross to 2Q: •Middle East conflict:The Group has a ~6% exposure to the Middle East - with W&S having the lowest exposure, followedby F&LG (slightly above ~6%), then W&J, and highest for Sephora. The conflict had a -100bps impact on Group OSG (=-300bps impact in March), and a -200bps impact on F&LG (the division would have seen flattish growth without the war) •Phasing:The overall impact on the quarter is close to a -50% decline in ME spending. However, this reflects a close tototal shutdown at the start of the war, and a gradual reopening over the course of March. Travel retail remains the mostheavily impacted; Sephora is potentially less impacted given its heavier exposure to Saudi Arabia, however. •Repatriation:Management has yet to see repatriation / a shift of ME spending elsewhere (e.g. to Europe) but doesexpect some degree of repatriation if the conflict continues •Impact on margins:The Middle East is ‘quite a profitable’ market, with store closures leading to operating deleverage •Impact on margins:Management reiterated that 3-4% (or LSD at a stretch) organic growth is required to achieve stablecFX margins (ex. a -80bps headwind from currency in 1H26). However, we note that management will likely continue toimplement cost efficiency measures to help achieve stable margins. •Brand momentum:Management was keen to highlight resilient demand at Louis Vuitton and strong brand momentum atDior. Both LV and Dior are very close together in terms of performance. •Louis Vuittonremains more resilient than the F&LG average of -2% OSG •Louis Vuitton remains more resilient than competitors, and has always been able to ‘nourish’ clientele with newnessand unique retail experience - management highlighted the new flagship in Seoul as a key driver for reconnecting withSouth Korean clients. This momentum i