梅赛德斯：2026年第一季度简报电话会议，传达平稳信息

European Automobiles & Components Mercedes-Benz Group AG Steve Pereira Fernandes, CFA+44 20 7676 7254steve.pereira-fernandes@bernsteinsg.comGali Salvatorelli Naraghi+44 20 7676 6741gali.salvatorelli-naraghi@bernsteinsg.com Rating Market-Perform Price Target 61.00 EUR MBG.GR Harry Martin, CFA+44 20 7676 8965harry.martin@bernsteinsg.com Mercedes: 1Q26 briefing call, a calm message Mercedes hosted a pre 1Q26 briefing call on 13 April with Head of Treasury & InvestorRelations Christina Schenck shortly before the market close. Mercedes will be presenting its1Q26 results on 29 April. The principal messages were that Cars’ adj. RoS in 1Q26 should bewithin the FY26 guidance range of 3-5%, albeit towards lower end of that range. The 1Q26 Volumes and mix:1Q26 group wholesales of 499.7k units were sequentially 9% aheadof the 459.4k units in 4Q25 but down -6% yoy, as already reported on 9 April. ExcludingChina, global Passenger Car wholesales grew 5% vs 1Q25, supported by strong sales inboth Europe and the US. Europe saw a 7% yoy rise in car wholesales, helped by Germanywhich saw growth of 9%. US wholesale grew by 20% yoy in 1Q26. China wholesales fell by27% yoy, continuing to reflect fiercely competitive market conditions and weaker consumersentiment although average transaction prices were more stable. Model phase-outs ahead of EVs:xEV share was 19% globally in 1Q26 (vs 20% in 1Q25), and 41% in Europe (vs 37% in1Q25). 1Q26 BEV sales were up 9% up yoy, with growing momentum seen from the electricCLA that has received multiple accolades. The main driver behind the sequential decline inglobal xEV share was the planned phase-out of certain PHEV models. The new electric GLChas just started production, with first deliveries in 2Q26. In the 3 months that the order bookhas been open, the order intake has significantly outperformed expectations and is larger RoS (Return on sales):FY25 Cars adj. RoS was 5.0% and Vans adj. RoS was 10.2%. FY26guidance is between 3-5% and 8-10% respectively. The 1Q26 Vans’ adj. RoS should be towards the upper end of the 8-10% guidance range.(Continued on page 2) (Continued from page 1) Industrial FCF:FY25 industrial FCF stood at €5.4bn, and the FY26 guidance is for FCF to be slightly below this figure - usingMercedes’ guidelines this translates to a range between €4.1-4.9bn. The 1Q26 figure is looking healthy and is consistent with Middle East:Short-term, Mercedes’ operations are not extremely exposed to spot prices of oil and gas, so there are nonoticeable headwinds relating to this matter in 1Q26. There has been some hesitation towards ICE products by customers dueto increased fuel prices. Should this persist, there could be some impact on profitability as the company has not yet achieved US:Strong wholesale growth of 20% yoy in 1Q26 to 81,100 units was notable but this was still below the absolute level ofretail sales (87,050 units, +15.9% yoy according to Motor Intelligence), suggesting there is room for further restocking of INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Mercedes Market-Perform. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernstein Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Mercedes-Benz Group AG We value Mercedes on its LT median multiples (EV/Sales 27%, EV/EBIT 3.6x), to which we add Mercedes’ 30% stake in DaimlerTruck at its current market value. We apply a 20% discount to our subsequent equity value to account for structural changesincluding the BEV transition and the Chinese market. This methodology yields a price target of €61. RISKS Mercedes-Benz Group AG Downside risks to price target: 1) Trade dispute between the EU and China discourages purchase of German brand cars in China2) Margin dilution from increased BEV sales 3) Trade tensions between the US and China hits profits of US sourced SUVs. Upside RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks liste