梅赛德斯：2026年第一季度简报电话会议，传递平稳信息

Steve Pereira Fernandes, CFA+44 20 7676 7254steve.pereira-fernandes@bernsteinsg.com RatingMarket-Perform Gali Salvatorelli Naraghi+44 20 7676 6741gali.salvatorelli-naraghi@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 61.00 EUR MBG.GR Harry Martin, CFA+44 20 7676 8965harry.martin@bernsteinsg.com Mercedes: 1Q26 briefing call, a calm message Mercedes hosted a pre 1Q26 briefing call on 13 April with Head of Treasury & InvestorRelations Christina Schenck shortly before the market close. Mercedes will be presenting its1Q26 results on 29 April. The principal messages were that Cars’ adj. RoS in 1Q26 should bewithin the FY26 guidance range of 3-5%, albeit towards lower end of that range. The 1Q26Vans’ adj. RoS should be towards the upper end of the 8-10% FY26 guidance range. Cashflowshould remain robust in 1Q26. Volumes and mix:1Q26 group wholesales of 499.7k units were sequentially 9% aheadof the 459.4k units in 4Q25 but down -6% yoy, as already reported on 9 April. ExcludingChina, global Passenger Car wholesales grew 5% vs 1Q25, supported by strong sales inboth Europe and the US. Europe saw a 7% yoy rise in car wholesales, helped by Germanywhich saw growth of 9%. US wholesale grew by 20% yoy in 1Q26. China wholesales fell by27% yoy, continuing to reflect fiercely competitive market conditions and weaker consumersentiment although average transaction prices were more stable. Model phase-outs ahead ofchangeovers, in particular in entry segment, also contributed to this heavy decline. Top-endvehicles (TEVs) comprised 14.7% of global car wholesales in 1Q26. This share ought to risein the coming quarters once the new S-class, launched at the end of January 2026 has fullyramped along with the new GLS that was premiered at the Tuscaloosa plant on 31 March.1Q26 Van sales reached 80.3k units, equating to a 3% yoy decline. EVs:xEV share was 19% globally in 1Q26 (vs 20% in 1Q25), and 41% in Europe (vs 37% in1Q25). 1Q26 BEV sales were up 9% up yoy, with growing momentum seen from the electricCLA that has received multiple accolades. The main driver behind the sequential decline inglobal xEV share was the planned phase-out of certain PHEV models. The new electric GLChas just started production, with first deliveries in 2Q26. In the 3 months that the order bookhas been open, the order intake has significantly outperformed expectations and is largerthan that of any other electric vehicle in the company’s history. Order books for the CLA, GLBand GLC BEVs are said to comfortably be reaching into the second half of the year. E-vanvolume rose by 29% yoy to 6.1k units, providing a BEV share of 8% in the Vans business (vs6% in 1Q25). (Continued from page 1) Industrial FCF:FY25 industrial FCF stood at €5.4bn, and the FY26 guidance is for FCF to be slightly below this figure - usingMercedes’ guidelines this translates to a range between €4.1-4.9bn. The 1Q26 figure is looking healthy and is consistent withthe levels needed to reach the full year guide. Middle East:Short-term, Mercedes’ operations are not extremely exposed to spot prices of oil and gas, so there are nonoticeable headwinds relating to this matter in 1Q26. There has been some hesitation towards ICE products by customers dueto increased fuel prices. Should this persist, there could be some impact on profitability as the company has not yet achievedmargin parity between BEV and ICE vehicles. US:Strong wholesale growth of 20% yoy in 1Q26 to 81,100 units was notable but this was still below the absolute level ofretail sales (87,050 units, +15.9% yoy according to Motor Intelligence), suggesting there is room for further restocking ofdealers. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Mercedes Market-Perform. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Mercedes-Benz Group AG We value Mercedes on its LT median multiples (EV/Sales 27%, EV/EBIT 3.6x), to which we add Mercedes’ 30% stake in DaimlerTruck at its current market value. We apply a 20% discount to our subsequent equity valu