LVMH 2026年第一季度：派对延期

Global Luxury Goods LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE Maria Meita+44 20 7170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperform Eric Chen, CFA+852 2123 2628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 685.00 EUR MC.FP Yi-Peng Khoo, CFA+44 20 7676 6822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com LVMH 1Q26: Party postponed LVMH has reported a better 1Q26 update than it closed last year in 4Q25. But this is likelynot enough to convince investors to step off the fence. The -2% organic growth in F&LG islikely going to hold them back, even if the Middle East has caused a 100bps headwind (asanticipated: Global Luxury Goods: A deep-dive into the Middle East). We believe that LV hasnever been a problem and is not a problem, while Dior is reviving – albeit more in the Westthan in China – under the new creative leadership of Jonathan Anderson. Away from thetough Takashi Murakami comps and with more Dior momentum developing, we’d expect2Q26E to be the quarter when we finally see F&LG move back to positive organic growth.President Trump and the 3rdGulf War permitting. FX was a -700bps drag on top-line. Close Date10 Apr 2026MC.FP Close Price (EUR)483.30Price Target (EUR)685.00Upside/(Downside)42%52-Week Range654.70/436.55EDME1,523.92FYEDecDiv Yield2.7%Market Cap (EUR) (M)236,999EV (EUR) (M)261,336 By division,the all-important F&LG division saw organic growth at -2% (vs. consensus at-0.9%), W&S at +5% (vs. -0.7%); P&C at +0% (vs. +1.4%); W&J at +7% (vs. +4.8%) andSelective Retailing +4% (vs. +5.8%). By geography,LVMH saw US organic growth at +3% (vs. consensus at +2.4%), APAC ex. JPat +7% (+2.1%); Japan at -3% (-1.5%), and Europe at -3% (+0.3%). LVMH noted that war inthe Middle East had a -1% impact on organic growth for the quarter. We rate LVMH Outperform, PT €685.00. The conference call will take place at 1800 CET | 1700 UKT | 1200 EST (webinar link here). Links to research •Global Luxury Goods: The Handbag Price & Mix Barometer - Merchandising momentumbuilds at Dior•Global Luxury Goods Mega-transect: Strong Lunar New Year 2026 foot traffic points to agradual recovery•Blackbook - LVMH: Trunk Show EXHIBIT 3:Luxury Goods Calendar Year 1Q26 results INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate LVMH Outperform with a target price of EUR685. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE We value LVMH on a target 1.8x relative P/E multiple to the MSCI Europe, applied to a blended forward EPS forecast on an NTM+1 basis, arriving at a target price of EUR685. RISKS LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE On the downside: 1. Post COVID-19 normalization could swing consumer spending back to experiences from products, which could continue tocreate growth headwinds, especially during an economic downturn, with consumers allocating a limited budget to discretionaryspending; 2. Escalating geopolitical tensions could impact the feel-good factor, directly impacting consumer demand, and therefore LVMHand the luxury sector; 3. Higher competition in beauty retail – especially in the USA – and continuing pressure on makeup can weigh heavily on Sephora. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL) for stocks listed on the Japaneseexchanges, and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian(ex-Japan) exchanges -unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings: •Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp