您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [美银证券]:汽车政策电话会议要点:2026年汽车以旧换新刺激政策将延续 - 发现报告

汽车政策电话会议要点:2026年汽车以旧换新刺激政策将延续

2025-11-21 - 美银证券 ZLY
报告封面

21 November 2025 EquityGreater China We hosted a conference call with Ms. Liu Yan, who has been an Automotive InternationalPolicy Research Engineer at the China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co.,Ltd. (CATARC) since December 2016. The call focused on China auto policy outlook,including trade-in subsidy, vehicle purchase tax, consumption tax, vehicle tariff. Wesummarize our key takeaways. According to Ms. Yan, total vehicle trade-in subsidyamount reached RMB130bn, as of end-September 2025, and is seen at RMB150bn in2025. Ms. Liu stated that vehicle trade-in subsidy for scrappage/replacement will Ming Hsun Lee, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 5006 Joey Yang, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 4021 Fiona Liang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 4390 Stricter technical requirements to stimulate high-quality Jessie Lo>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Singapore)+65 6678 1134 Regarding stricter technical requirements for NEVs eligible for purchase-tax exemptionin 2026-27, Ms. Liu said that nearly 83%/53% of BEVs/PHEVs sold in 9M25 met the newstandards. The policy’s aim is to stimulate development of high-quality NEVs, and someNEVs with low quality will not enjoy the purchase-tax exemption. In addition, consideringthe higher-than-expected NEV penetration rate, the government will no longer set goalsfor NEV penetration, and may focus more on intelligent vehicles development in the next NEV: new energy vehicle BEV: battery electric vehicle PHEV: plug-in hybrid electric vehicle BEV exportregulations to control parallel exports Ms. Liu stated that the China BEV exports regulation released in September 2025 is apart of the anti-involution policy in the overseas market, which is discouraging parallelexports (export zero-mileage used cars via traders): under the new policy, all BEV PVs forexport must apply for an export license; only auto OEMs and their authorized operatingcompanies are eligible to apply, while auto OEMs can only export BEV PVs of their ownbrands. Parallel exports via traders generally export vehicles to other countries at lower Capacity regulation in both China and overseas markets Due to the low utilization rate across the industry, auto OEMs are less likely to getpermission to expand production capacity in China. On the other hand, Ms. Yan saidcapacity expansion in the overseas market will also be regulated, and auto OEMs may Disclosures Important Disclosures BofA Global Research personnel (including the analyst(s) responsible for this report) receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overall profitability of Bank of AmericaCorporation, including profits derived from investment banking. The analyst(s) responsible for this report may also receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overallprofitability of the Bank’s sales and trading businesses relating to the class of securities or financial instruments for which such analyst is responsible. Other Important Disclosures From time to time research analysts conduct site visits of covered issuers. BofA Global Research policies prohibit research analysts from accepting payment or reimbursement for travel Prices are indicative and for information purposes only. Except as otherwise stated in the report, for any recommendation in relation to an equity security, the price referenced is the publiclytraded price of the security as of close of business on the day prior to the date of the report or, if the report is published during intraday trading, the price referenced is indicative of the tradedprice as of the date and time of the report and in relation to a debt security (including equity preferred and CDS), prices are indicative as of the date and time of the report and are from varioussources including BofA Securities trading desks. The date and time of completion of the production of any recommendation in this report shall be the date and time of dissemination of this report as recorded in the report timestamp. Recipients who are not institutional investors or market professionals should seek the advice of their independent financial advisor before considering information in this report in connectionwith any investment decision, or for a necessary explanation of its contents.Officers of BofAS or one or more of its affiliates (other than research analysts) may have a financial interest in securities of the issuer(s) or in related investments. "BofA Securities" includes BofA Securities, Inc. ("BofAS") and its affiliates. Investors should contact their BofA Securities representative or Merrill Global Wealth Managementfinancial advisor if they have questions concerning this report or concerning the appropriateness of any investment idea described herein for such investor. "BofA Securities" is aglobal brand for BofA Global Research. Information relating to Non-US affiliates of BofA Securities and Distribution of Affiliate Research Reports