美国汽车产业困局分析报告

October 2025 Not China’s Fault:America’s Auto authors:yILUN Zhang & Joint Project of the icas Trade 'nTechnology Program and icas Blue ABOUT ICAS TheInstitute for China-America Studies is anindependent think tank in Washington D.C. ICASfocuses on the evolving dynamics in the U.S.-Chinarelationship to promote greater collaboration andmutual understanding through sincere exchangesof fresh ideas, objective policy-oriented research,andfair assessments of this critical bilateralrelationship.Our research covers U.S.-China ICAS is a 501(c)3 nonprofit organization. ICAS takesno institutional positions on policy issues. The views expressed in this document are those ofthe author(s) alone. © 2025 by the Institute for China-America Studies.All rights reserved. Institute for China-America Studies1919 M St. NW Suite 310 Washington, DC 20036202 968-0595 | www.chinaus-icas.org ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my deepest gratitude to those who havegenerously shared their time, insights, and support throughout thedevelopment of this report. Mr. Jian (Jerry) Hong offered invaluableperspectives and inspiration on automobile manufacturing. My oldfriend, Mr. Lin Yang, provided a first-hand view of the Americanmanufacturingindustry,grounding many of the argumentspresented here. My colleague, Sourabh Gupta, gave steadfast supportand stimulating discussions, while my colleague, Dr. Nong Hong, not Finally, I would like to dedicate this report to my father, HongZhang, a retiring entrepreneur who devoted his entire career to the I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to all of mycolleagues at ICAS, both those still with the team and those who havemoved on, for their encouragement and support. As my very first Special thanks to Mr. LI Shuo of the Asia Society, whose earlyconversations with me on electric vehicle issues provided valuable At very last, a special thanks also goes to the achievement ofartificialintelligence that empowered this report,and may it CONTENTS The U.S. Auto Industry at a CrossroadsWashington’s Auto Policy: Between Stimulus andProtectionismTwo Paths, One Dead End, and One Way OutPowering the Transition: Batteries Hold the KeyExecutive Summary13142519 CHARTS U.S. Sales of the Detroit Big Three Pre-2007 vs Post 2008Financial Crisis to 20206 Executive Summary The U.S. auto industry faces a structural crisis that cannot be explained awayby simply citing foreign competition as a scapegoat. Decades of prioritizing SUVs andpickup trucks left Detroit unprepared for the global pivot to smaller, more efficientvehicles before an even more revolutionary turn towards electrification that pavesways towards future intelligent driving. While Tesla demonstrates that Americanfirms can succeed in electrification, its success is not replicable at scale given its Policyresponses have so far failed to resolve this dilemma. The Bidenadministration sought to combine the climate-oriented regulation mandate withelectrification-oriented infrastructure policy to promote demand for EVs,butwithout supply-side restructuring these measures accelerated the decline of internalcombustionengine(ICE) vehicles without securing a competitive EV base. The America’s enduring advantages lie in technology. The U.S. leads in varioussectorsof artificial intelligence development-one that is essential to futureintelligentdriving-including semiconductor design,cloud infrastructure,and Hybridsoffer a pragmatic bridge. Unlike pure EV, HEV can be built onexisting ICE platforms, requiring only incremental advances in electric drive andcompact batteries. This lowers costs, promotes supply chain resilience, and alignswithAmerica’sreindustrializationgoals.Hybridsalsodeliver meaningful prepare the ground for electrification, and create space for the application of U.S. Strategically, the U.S. must treat protectionism as a temporary buffer, not apermanent solution. American Automakers should make better use of this period toscale hybrids, consolidate throughfinancial restructuring, and eliminate inefficientproducers. Internationally, America should avoid head-to-head EV competition withChina,Japan, and Europe, instead pursuing asymmetric strategies that leverage brand strength, intelligent design, and differentiated pricing. Policymakers must alsomove beyond securitizing supply chains—especially exaggerated fears of rare earth The policy implication is clear: America’s auto revival depends on couplinghybridtransition with capacity rebuilding,embedding technology into scaledproduction, and resisting the drift toward oversecuritization. If Detroit can seize this Part I | The U.S. Auto Industry at a Crossroads At the midpoint of the 20th century, Detroit was not only the beating heart ofAmericanindustry but also a global symbol of mass production and consumerculture. The “Big Three”—General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler—set the standard for scale, technological prowess, and brand power. In 1962, GM alone held close to 50 That do