2025中国汽车产业分析报告

MACRO BACKGROUND •MACROECONOMICS AND SITUATION •CHINESE POLICIES AND REGULATIONS In 2025, facing complexchanges in China’s andglobal economicconditions, the nationaleconomy advancedunder pressure, shiftedtoward innovation andquality, and achievednew progress inhigh-qualitydevelopment, with allmajor economic andsocial targets fully met Key figures 2025 GDP up5.0%GDP upatconstantprice2)from2024 2025annualGDP According to annualdata released by theNational Bureau ofStatistics, GDP for theyear reached 1,401,879CNY100m, up 5.0% YoY·2025 In 2025, China's automotive industry was influenced by three main factors:the international situation, consumption, and energy demand 2025 KEY IMPACT FACTORS Internationalsituation Energydemand Consumption •The Energy Law of the People's Republicof Chinacame into effect, establishinga framework for green and low-carbonenergy transition, accelerating therestructuring of automotive energysupply and the diversification oftechnology pathways •In 2025, weakening unipolarity andaccelerating multipolarity keptgeopolitical risks elevated amidsustained regional conflicts andcross-border frictions•Globalization suffered major setbacksas tariff wars disrupted trade rules. U.S.export controls and sanctions on Chinashifted from high-pressure escalationto partial, phased easing.•Geopolitical tensions exposed thevulnerability of petrochemical-energysupply chains, increasing the risk ofsharp price swings and economicvolatility, while further highlighting thestrategic importance of new energy •In 2025, the “two-new” policies wereextended and expanded, continuing tosupport automotive consumption. Afterthe demand release in 2024, theirmarginal impact on 2025 salesmoderated. •Chinese brands continued gainingmarket share, driven by technology andvalue-for-money advantages. Theirpassenger-vehicle share reached69.5% in 2025. BYD, Geely and othersretained leadership through fasterproduct iteration and strongertechnical capability. JV-brand ICE salesdeclined, and the market kept shiftingtoward NEVs. •New-energy infrastructure continued toimprove, and a “3-year doubling”target for charging point deploymentwas set to meet NEV usagerequirements •China further refined regulations for thebattery-recycling industry and issuedmanagement measures clarifyingresponsibility scopes The EU eased tariffs on Chinese EVs while the U.S. raised tariffs, increasingpressure on China’s exports CHANGES IN WORLD TARIFF POLICY(1/2) Changes in tariff policies on Chinese NEVs inthe EU, the U.S., and other major global markets Details of changes in tariff policies •Aside from the U.S. invoking Section 301 inSep.2024 to raise tariffson Chinese NEVs to 100%, U.S. tariff policy has shown clear phasedadjustments and legal uncertainty −InMar.2025, President Trump signed an executive order toimpose a 25% tariff on all imported vehicles −InFeb.2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Trumpadministration’s tariff actions based on the IEEPA exceededstatutory authority, rendering the 10% “fentanyl tariff” and the10% “reciprocal tariff” invalid. Although tariff levels fell in theshort term, the administration may still reimpose tariffs usingother legal tools, leaving future actions highly uncertain •InJan.2026, the EU formally introduced theMinimum Import Price(MIP)mechanism, allowing Chinese OEMs to submit pricecommitments by model and configuration to replaceanti-subsidy tariffs of up to 45.3% •InJan.2026, Canada removed its 100% tariff on Chinese EVs andgranted China a quota of 49k EVs per year, which qualify for the6.1% MFN1)tariff rate Global trade frictions are showing signs of a phased easing, butuncertainties in U.S. trade and industrial policy remain significant CHANGES IN WORLD TARIFF POLICY(2/2) •In 1/2026, the EU formally launched theMinimum Import Price (MIP)mechanism, allowing Chinese OEMs to submit pricecommitments at the model and configuration level as an alternative to anti-subsidy duties of up to 45.3% •While the policy adjustment appears to ease trade tensions on the surface, it reflects Europe’s clear industrial-protectionlogic. It not only places significantconstraints on the traditional ‘high value-for-money’ market-entry strategy of ChineseOEMsbut also accelerates the shift in China-EU automotive competition from a ‘price war’ to a ‘technology war’. Within thisnew competitive cycle,the price threshold provides European OEMs with a valuable buffer period, enabling them to speedup technology upgrades and strengthen product competitiveness. •The 100% Section 301 tariff is the most central and targeted U.S. trade barrier against Chinese NEVs. On top of this, thecumulative impact of existing tariffs and compliance costs makes exports of Chinese EVs to the U.S. economically unviable,effectively blocking the possibility for Chinese brands to enter the mainstream U.S. market through direct exports. At thesame time, by imposing additional tariffs on Mexican products that do not meet USMCA1)ru