AI光模块：新NPO订单或暗示积极需求前景

Andy Meng, CFAEquity AnalystAndy.Meng@morganstanley.com AI Transceivers: New NPOOrders Could Imply PositiveDemand Outlook Greater China Technology Hardware Key Takeaways Asia PacificIndustry View New NPO orders are likely to trigger the bull case scenario for the AI transceivergroup. While there is lack of official announcement regarding the new NPO [Near-PackagedOptics] orders, there is industry discussion that overseas clients have placed suchorders with leading AI transceiver companies in China. We believe this is very likely, given that the leading AI transceiver companiesdemonstrated NPO solutions during the 2026 OFC [Optical Fiber CommunicationConference] in March. We highlighted this in AI Transceiver: Catalyst Previews -2026 OFC (13 Mar 2026) What's more, we believe new NPO orders are not just raising the companies'backlog. They could materially reduce investors' concerns regarding the disruptionrisk from CPO [Co-Packaged Optics]. In our recent global report – GlobalTechnology: AI Transceivers: Growth Dominates Disruption (26 Feb 2026) – wehighlighted a bull case scenario: •CPO adoption delayed beyond 2028; NPO matures earlier; transceiversretain >70% high-end share over the longer term. The recent NPO development could make the bull case (NPO matures earlier) morelikely to occur. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Disclosure Section The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited (which accepts the responsibility for its contents) and/or MorganStanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. (Registration number 199206298Z) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number 200008434H), regulated by the MonetaryAuthority of Singapore (which accepts legal responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanley Research),and/or Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Seoul Branch, and/or Morgan Stanley Australia Limited (A.B.N. 67 003 734 576, holder of Australian financialservices license No. 233742, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia Pty Ltd (A.B.N. 19 009 145 555, holder of Australian financialservices license No. 240813, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited having Corporate Identification No (CIN)U22990MH1998PTC115305, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) and holder of licenses as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001105); Stock Broker(SEBI Stock Broker Registration No. INZ000244438), Merchant Banker (SEBI Registration No. INM000011203), and depository participant with National Securities Depository Limited (SEBIRegistration No. IN-DP-NSDL-567-2021) having registered office at Altimus, Level 39 & 40, Pandurang Budhkar Marg, Worli, Mumbai 400018, India; Telephone no. +91-22-61181000; ComplianceOfficer Details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, Tel. No.: +91-22-61181000 or Email: tejarshi.hardas@morganstanley.com; Grievance officer details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, Tel. No.: +91-22-61181000 or Email:msic-compliance@morganstanley.com which accepts the responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan StanleyResearch, and their affiliates (collectively, "Morgan Stanley"). Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited (MSICPL) may use AI tools in providing research services. All recommendationscontained herein are made by the duly qualified research analysts. For important disclosures, stock price charts and equity rating histories regarding companies that are the subject of this report, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Websiteat www.morganstanley.com/eqr/disclosures/webapp/generalresearch, or contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: ResearchManagement), New York, NY, 10036 USA. For valuation methodology and risks associated with any recommendation, rating or price target referenced in this research report, please contact the Client Support Team as follows: US/Canada+1 800 303-2495; Hong Kong