全球奢侈品：2026年第一季度中西方社交媒体角力——行业处于变动中

Global Luxury Goods: Chinese and Western Social Media BoxingRing 1Q26 - An industry in churn We dive into luxury brands' 1Q26 relative performance on social media platforms relevant toChinese and Western consumers. Luca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com Both Chinese and Western social media trackers point to a broadly similar range of‘hot’ brands this quarter.Ralph Lauren (not covered), Zegna, and Chanel (private) leadbrand momentum in China, while Zegna, Chanel, and Ferragamo lead brand momentumin the West. Ralph Lauren’s strong run in China continues - it takes the top spot in China;momentum persists in the West, albeit at a lower altitude. Ferragamo sees sustained socialmedia momentum in the West, despite a sharp deceleration in growth in China given thehard comps after their 30th anniversary activations in the region in 4Q25. Maria Meita+44 20 7170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com Eric Chen, CFA+852 2123 2628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com Yi-Peng Khoo, CFA+44 20 7676 6822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com Zegna continues to enjoy sustained momentum across both regions.The brandmoves up +4 positions to 2ndplace in China, and up +1 position to take 1stspot in the West.The brand’s social media strategy - led by global brand ambassadors Mads Mikkelsen (whoalso fronts Zegna's campaign for the six fragrance collection launched in March this year)and William Chan - is clearly working. Zegna continues to enjoy growth across almost all keysocial media platforms. Specialist Sales Alix Turner+44 20 7762 4044alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com Chanel and Matthieu Blazy have delivered brand re-ignition.Chanel moves up +5 positions in China (to 3rdplace) and +11 positions in the West (to 2ndplace). The initialbuzz around Matthieu Blazy’s SS26 debut has continued to gather steam through to 1Q26,boosted by Chanel’s FW26 runway show and the arrival of the SS26 merchandise in stores(see Global Luxury Goods: The Handbag Price & Mix Barometer - Chanel's readacross toHermès). Other brand turnaround stories seem to paint a more mixed picture.Dior’s revival haslargely been a Western (and more specifically, Instagram-driven) phenomenon. Relativesocial media momentum for Dior in China remains middling, at best. Burberry’s relativebrand momentum has started to slow in both regions. Nevertheless, it continues to enjoyabove-average brand momentum in China. Gucci, on the other hand, sits at the bottom ofour momentum rankings in both regions. Demna’s arrival at Gucci has yet to generate avisible spark on social media. We observe a consistent deceleration across both regions at Miu Miu and LouisVuitton.This marks the first quarter where Miu Miu fails to break into the top-10 in eitherour Chinese or Western social media trackers. Momentum around Louis Vuitton has alsoslowed as 4Q25/1Q26’s ‘Monogram Anniversary’ fails to match the buzz generated around1Q25’s Takashi Murakami x Louis Vuitton revival and 3Q25’s ‘The Louis’ debut in China. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS The trajectory of a recovery in global luxury demand remains uncertain. We will find two sources of volatility at play: a) underlyingdemand gyrations, as consumers navigate a fragile macro-economic environment and a tenser and tenser geopoliticalenvironment; and b) short-term investors playing the sector long and short, amplifying upswings and downswings beyondnatural news flow. In this context of heightened uncertainty, we would take a more defensive posture with a core exposure to plainvanilla: 1) We would prefer high-quality names “at fair value”...Richemontis our top preference due to strong jewellery momentum andleadership, withBrunello Cucinellialso favored for their quality and potential mean reversion. 2) ...as well as the self-help stories with more promising trajectories.LVMHsits between high quality and self-help. Lingeringconcerns around the W&S turnaround and the Arnault family’s ‘Darwinian’ succession process are counter-balanced by Dior’srevival, cost efficiencies, and Louis Vuitton’s strength; Turnaround atBurberryis well on track. One-year anniversary of theBurberry Forward strategy has paid off, in the form of improved brand momentum and stronger full-price sell-through. With asolid foundation in place, the next leg of turnaround will see focus shifting to driving store productivity, by capitalizing on theextended momentum in other categories from the core outerwear & scarf;Ferragamois at an earlier stage of a turnaround(Salvatore Ferragamo: Less is more. Upgrade to Outperform) and trading at the lower end of its historical range. After 10+ yearsof false starts and unfulfilled promises, recent results and conversations withmanagement suggest that Ferragamo is moving in the right direction, as a team of “old hands” are tackling key issues aroundcommunication, assortment and retail store network. Previously in the series:Global Luxury Goods: Chinese and Western Social Media Boxing Ring 3Q25 - Luxury consumers searchfor the next