美国医疗服务：第八届年度医疗政策研讨会要点

US Healthcare Services: Takeaways from our 8th annual We hosted our 8thannual Healthcare Policy Symposiumon April 2rd. We hosted fourspeakers with extensive DC experience and unique perspectives -Dan MendelsonformerClinton White House, the founder of leading DC policy consulting firm, Avalere, and now the Lance Wilkes+1 917 344 8501lance.wilkes@bernsteinsg.com CEO of Morgan Health;Brian Blase, the President of the Paragon Health Institute, a formerTrump Administration leader;Paul Lee,founder of Strategic Health Care and a longtimeCapitol Hill healthcare strategist;Yvette Fontenot, former Obama White House staffer andSenate staffer.Our key takeaways: MA will grow long term but will need to deliver savings.All speakers expect MA toremain an important long term program and expect continued growth in enrollment. Fairlyconsistently, speakers expect long term MA rates to be modestly below cost trends, forcingMA plans to find operating expense and medical cost containment savings. For final rate, PBM reform appears to be largely accomplished.Reflecting on our discussions withexperts, they seemed to conclude that PBM reform had largely been accomplished throughthe PBM bill and the FTC settlements. This aligns with our view that there has been largely aclearing event for PBMs policy-wise. However, there still remains some latent risk, with the Reconciliation should have limited healthcare exposure.While a reconciliation 2.0bill seems likely, we expect such a bill would have limited healthcare elements. Healthcarewould mainly be a pay-for, but following the OBBA and given weak polling, we do not expect Affordability remains the top overall healthcare topic.As policy reform is enacted andplanned, it is clear that affordability remains the top objective. This is driving interest in BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate AGL Market-Perform with a price target of $0.88, CNC Outperform with a price target of $48, CI Outperform with aprice target of $358, CVS Outperform with a price target of $94, ELV Outperform with a price target of $384, HCA Market-Perform with a price target of $541, HUM Outperform with a price target of $211, MOH Outperform with a price target of $173,and UNH Outperform with a price target of $405. DETAILS SUMMARY OF THE DISCUSSION WITH DAN MENDELSON Key takeaways from Dan Mendelson- 1) Government wants to see MA growth but will take a hard line on MA rates. Optimisticabout AI and digital analytics to drive efficiencies to make MA better. 2) Government is not only putting emphasis on operating Background of the speaker.Dan Mendelson has a unique perspective, having served in the Clinton White House, the founder ofleading DC policy consulting firm, Avalere, and now the CEO of Morgan Health where he manages double bottom line investments Dan Mendelson has been the keynote speaker at a number of our prior Policy Symposiums and a unique perspective on theintersection of policy and policy making. He was previously Founder and CEO of Avalere Health, a healthcare advisory companybased in Washington DC. Dan also served as Operating Partner at Welsh Carson, a private equity firm. Before founding Avalere,Dan served as associate director for Health at the Office of Management and Budget in the Clinton White House. Dan currentlyserves on the board of Champions Oncology (CSBR) and is adjunct professor at the Georgetown University McDonough School Trump Administration's objectives for Medicare Advantage. As per Mr. Mendelson, the desire to see growth in MA haslargely been consistence over the last 20 years across administrations. There is a sense of optimism that MA with moreintegrated model with better data, better adherence to cost and quality should be providing a superior product. Also, optimismaround AI, digital analytics as ways to drive efficiency will continue to make MA better. Government is expected take hard line onMA rates but will give flexibilities to see if the plans grow their enrollment and offer a better product. Mr. Mendelson thinks plans Cost trend and care management.Mr. Mendelson thinks that the government is not only putting emphasis on operatingratios but also on the care management side. This includes preventing unnecessary surgeries, ER visits, urgent care visits, andengaging with patients more proactively affecting (mostly decreasing) the trend to some degree. Mr. Mendelson sees this playout in one of his portfolio company – Thyme Care, which is a VBC focused Oncology navigation company, serving MedicareAdvantage population. There are efforts to make them transition over to the Employer space, but they primarily serve MA, and Government perspective towards value created, what are they trying to accomplish? How much of an importance ispricing, stability and predictability?As per Mr. Mendelson, there is a strong focus on these aspects from the administration.He thinks Dr. Oz is looking at his role as a general manager setting tone and making sure right peop