美国媒体与电信：2025年第二季度流媒体网络研讨会要点

We hosted a webinar with experts from Parrot Analytics to deconstruct the drivers ofgrowth across streaming platforms in 2Q25. Here's the replay, and the presentation deckis available upon request. Our discussion delved into estimated total net adds for Netflix inQ2, and the different strategies/strengths of Netflix, Disney, and Warner Bros: streamingservices. Here are the top 5 takeaways:Takeaway 1: Netflix continues to lead in gross adds, and its leadership ininternational marketscontinuesdrivenby local content.Parrot estimatesNetflixhad~32M gross adds in 2Q25. This implies a sequential improvement and a decline year-over-year for Netflix in gross adds. They also estimate that ~10M of Netflix' gross adds, or 1/3,are driven by non-English content.Takeaway 2: WarnerBrosDiscovery has demonstrated strength in "returningseasons" in 2Q25. Parrot estimates WBD had ~5.5M gross adds in 2Q25, or 1/3, drivenby sequels, close to NFLX at ~6M even though WBD has smaller scale. These results areconsistentwithmanagement'scommentaryonbuildingupontheirportfolioof iPs.AlsoWBD has seen consistent subscriber growth in newly launched markets.Takeaway 3: Disney's subscriber growth is tied to theatrical success. ParrotTheatricallovies', higher than NFLX (licensed content) and WBD, but lower than 1 year ago(~6,5Mj. DIS' streaming success remains dependent on the success of its movies at the boxoffice. The volatile nature of the theatrical industry in general can lead to inconsistency interms of streaming subs growth.STakeaway 4: Netflix remains a clear leader in gross adds overall driven by growthin APAC and EMEA in Q2, whereas UCAN and LATAM remain more competitive. InUCAN, the reason is a relatively saturated market. In LATAM, DIS and WBD have a strongpresence insportsrightsand long-timerelationshipswithcable operators.Takeaway 5: Parrot estimates Netflix will achieve ~4M net adds, which is ~0.6M lessthan current consensus - less than a quarter of 1% of total subs today. Whether Netflixcomesinaboveorbelowtheconsensusbyamillionwouldnotmovetheneedle,andwewouldn't know anyway. For now, all eyes are on the guide for 2H.www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingNFLX0DIS0WBDMSPXO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe maintain our Outperform rating for Netflix (PT: $1200) and Disney (PT: $125); and Market-Perform rating forWarnerBrosDiscovery (PT:$11).s微信US MEDIA &TELECOM c 91BERNSTEIN|SOCIETE CENERALE CROUP DETAILSNetflixcontinuestobetheleaderingrossaddsdrivenbyoutsizedperformance ininternational markets: Parrot estimates Netflix has ~32M gross adds in 2Q25. While DIS and WBD have ~15-17M each (Exhibit 1). This implies asequential improvement and a decline year-over-year for Netflix in gross adds.and WBD this figure is less than 1M (Exhibit 2). Parrot believes that as advertising becomes a more relevant factor for allplatforms, global IPs (the traditional strategy for DIS and WBD) will not be enough to monetize engagement, and non-Englishcontent may become even more relevant.Examples of titles that illustrate NFLX Non-English content strength in 1 H25 include Squid Game, The Eternaut, andBernstein's take: Local content continues to be one of the key drivers for Netflix'gross adds. However, given the maturity stageofthecompany,weareunlikelytoseeare-accelerationofsubsgrowth,espindevelopedmarkets.EXHIBIT 1: Parrot estimates Netflix has ~32M gross adds in 2Q25. While DIS and WBD have ~15-17M each.Gross Adds Worldwide - NFLX is 2X competitionGlobal Gross AddsNetflix,Disney+andWBD45M35M30M25M: Parrot AnalyticsUS MEDIA &TELECOM platfornDisney+NetflixWarner Bros DiscoveryBERNSTEINSOCIETECENERALECROUP PA??OT@ EXHIBIT 2: Parrot estimates that ~10M of Netflix' gross adds, or 1/3, are joining their platform due to its Non-English content. For DIS and WBD this figure is less than 1M.Non-English Content drives 1OX subs for NFLXNon-EnglishContentGlobal Gross Addsplatform12MNetflixTTTTTWarmner Bros Discovery10MPA?ROTSource: Parrot AnalyticsEXHIBIT 3: Examples of titles that illustrate NFLX Non-English content strength in 1H25 include Squid Game, TheEternaut, and Sakamoto Days.NFLX 2025 Non-English Slate outpacing 2024Netflix Top Non-English Content, Jan-Jun 2024Netflix Top Non-English Content,Jan-Jun 20255Mdisplay_name5Mdisplay_nameMoney Heist (La..SquidGame(..AnimalThe Eternaut (E..Naruto: Shippud...Sakamoto Days (...WOnePiece（-4MOnePiece（-BerlinDragon Ball DaiAddsParasyte: The G..WhenLifeGives..3MMyHeroAcademi.3MNaruto: Shippud..obal GrossDemonSiayer:K..Society Of TheMy Hero Academi..DarkJujutsu Kaisen2MJawan2MJojo's BizarreJujutsu Kaisen.Hunter X HunterDelicious In Du...Alice In Border..Spirited AwayDandadan（1MCyberpunk: Edge..1MSolo Leveling (.QueenOfTearsAlpha Males (Ma..Vinland Saga (.Orb:OnTheMov..loio's BizarreDemon Slaver: K..Jan2024Mar2024May 2024Mar2025May2025PA?ROT@Source: Parrot Anal