比亚迪：买入/买入：2026年海外扩张与国内复苏

Buy/Buy:Overseasexpansion and domestic recoveryin 2026 China ◆Overseasexpansion toremainstrong given tech and brandleadership coupled with oil crisis tailwinds H: MAINTAIN BUY TARGET PRICE(HKD)PREVIOUS TARGET(HKD)146.00139.00 ◆Domestic market share tosustainfrom tech upgrade andrefresh/new product cycle ◆Maintain Buy rating withTPs up toRMB126(from RMB123)and HKD146(from HKD139) Overseas to drive 2026 volume and margin growth.In 4Q25, BYD delivered net profitof RMB9.3bn, below our prior expectations, mainly due to the electronics segment’sgross margin falling to 4% (from 7% in 3Q25) on a higher mix of lower-margin assemblywork. Excluding electronics, the EV and battery segment saw a modest QoQ marginuplift to 19.0% (from 18.7%), supported by stronger EV volumes but partly offset by costpressure from added features without price rises amid intense competition. BYD’s A andH shares are up 15% and 10% MTD(vs. CSI300-4% and HIS-5% during same period)supported by the launch of its 2nd-generation Blade Battery and higher oil pricesfollowing regional conflict. For 2026e, overseas growth is the key catalyst; we forecast1.6m overseas units (+50%+ YoY). A: MAINTAIN BUY Techleadership with strong product cycle tosustain domestic shares.Thecompany’s Song Ultra EV (launched on26March),equipped with isBlade Battery2.0has shownstrong consumer traction in channel.In addition,BYD has a robustportfolio refresh across itsfourbrands, withc8new modelsundertheBYD brand(DaHan, Da Tang, Seal 07/08, Sealion 08, etc)and c5 undertheFangchengbao brand(Tai 5, Mei 7/9, etc), whichis likely tosustain shareof thedomestic marketamongfierce competition, andimprovethe product mix. EV battery and ESSgrowthanother angle to support earnings.Rising oil pricesshould further strengthen the total cost of ownership advantage of EVsvs.ICEvehicles, supporting faster EV conversion and stronger global energy storagedemand.In this context, BYD shipped 60GWh of EV and ESS batteries in 1Q26,representing 15%y-o-ygrowth, and we expect it to benefit furtherin 2026,underpinned byitsBlade battery’s leading cost position and efficiency. Yuqian Ding*Head of China Autos ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedyuqian.ding@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 5108 Li Yang*Analyst, China AutosThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedli01.yang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 6216 Earnings revisions.We revisedownour2026-27 earnings estimates by 18% and10%,respectively, mainly ontheback of lower gross marginsto reflect the rawmaterial cost inflation impact. We also introduce 2028 estimates in this report.Our2027-28 earnings forecasts are 2–6% above Bloomberg consensus, driven by amorepositiveview on BYD’s volume outlook following its second-generation batteryupgrade across the product line-up. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Maintain Buy ratings,increase TPstoRMB126 and HKD146.We continue to usea sum-of-the-parts approach tovaluation.Rolling forwardestimates to2026-28, wereachnew target pricesofRMB126 and HKD146for theA-and H-shares,implyingc23% and c39% upsides,thereforewe maintainour Buy ratings on both stocks. Seepage 6 for valuationsand risks. HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 Find out more Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with thedisclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation Key charts Earnings revisions We revise down 2026-27 earningsestimates by 18% and 10%,respectively, mainly onthebackof 2.2ppts and 1.5ppts lower gross marginsto reflect the raw materials cost inflation impact. Wealso introduce our 2028 estimates in this report. Our 2027-28 earnings forecasts are 2-6%above Bloomberg consensus, aswe’re morepositiveon BYD’s volume outlook after its productline-up witha second-generation battery upgrade. Maintain Buy ratings,increase TPsto RMB126 (from RMB123) and HKD146 (from HKD139).We continue to use a sum-of-the-parts approach to value BYD’s A-and H-shares. We updatethehandset component division and auto segment earnings estimatesand target valuation multiples,and using the latestHSBC end-2026e RMB/HKD rate of 1.16(from 1.13), wegetournewtargetprices for the A/HsharesatRMB126.00/HKD146.00(fromRMB123.00/HKD139.00. Our A-and H-share target prices imply c23%and c39% upsides, and we maintain our Buy ratings on both stocks. ◆For the handset component division, we apply BYDE’s (285 HK,HKD27.64,notrated)average 12-month forward P/E multiple of9.8x over the past month (from 12.0x, as perBloomberg)toour 2026earnings estimate of RMB5.7bn(previously2025’sRMB4.7bn)forthedivision and derive an implied valuation of RMB55.5bn (previouslyRMB56.2bn). ◆For BYD’s semiconductor division, incl