中国互联网2025年第四季度图表集：好的、坏的与变数

China Internet 4Q25 Chartbook: The Good,The Bad, and The WildCards Industry Overview The Good: QC loss narrowing, valuation, positioningWelcome to the latest China Internet Quarterly Chartbook- a visual deep dive into key trends, surprises, and developments shaping the quarter. In the past quarter, Chinese AImodels continued to advance and cloud revenue is accelerating, while transactionplatforms’EPS downward revision narrows amid improving QC unit economic outlook.Sectorvaluationis becoming depressed after the recent sell-off, now back to Apr2025’s level–currently at 17x forward 12-month PE vs. 21x for 10-year average/23x forNasdaq 100/31x for Mag 7.Positioninglooks light post recent sell-off, withAlibaba/Tencentappearingto be key surviving holdings (see ourmarketing feedback). The Bad: AI investment, ByteDance, buyback AI investment:key China internet platforms’EPS forecasts were revised lower mainlyon the back of higher AI investment (e.g. compute leasing, chatbot user acquisitionspending, R&D spending).ByteDance competitive spillover: we observe continuedengagement share gains by ByteDance across e-commerce, AI/cloud, local services (in-store), online music, online literature, and podcasts during the quarter, exerting sustainedpressure on incumbents’financial performance.Buyback moderation: Sector-widerepurchase activity slowed further (Tencent also cut down buyback target for 26E),reflecting capital allocation priorities shift toward capex/AI spending. The Wild Cards: AI agent & harnessing, cashflow, macroOpenClaw, harnessing & AI agent rivalry: we anticipate shifting AI application competition landscape - from AI chatbot to AI agent - as Tencent, BABA & independentmodel companies aggressively push their OpenClaw-based offering and focus on agentharnessing capability (i.e. the practice of coordinating, constraining, and operationalizingAI agents so they reliably perform useful tasks). User adoption patterns remain unclear—whether the market converges on a single agent or multiple platform-specific agents.Cashflow: we expect a step up of sector-wide capex given gradually improving GPU chip availability and front-end loaded spending of general servers. Against this backdrop,some of our covered stocks (e.g. BABA & Kuaishou) are facing tighter cash flowpressure.Macro: recent recovering retail sales in Jan & Feb 2026, combined with better-than-expected secondary property market YTD & regulatory focus on anti-involution,may bring cyclical revenue upsides (e-commerce & ads) against low expectation. Stock call: still prefer AI/online game to ecommerceTencent remains our sector top pickfor the best AI-application-driven growth at attractive valuation.Alibabaremains the best proxy for“AI/cloud in China”theme and isour China e-commerce top pick.NetEaseis entering a clear EPS upward revision cycleat an attractive valuation.Baidupresents big AI optionality with value unlocking ontrack.Digital entertainment: we prefer online gameandBILI.Verticals: we preferJD Health & TCOM. BofA Global Research Reports ChinaInternet:recent reports Tencent Holdings: 4Q25 Review & NDR takeaway: patience is a virtueBilibili: 4Q25 Review & NDR takeaway: platform scarcity warrants valuation premiumNetEase, Inc: 4Q25 Review: a back-end loaded yearMeituan: 4Q25 results in-line; CLC loss expected to narrow in 1Q26 on easing subsidy pressurePinduoduo Inc.: 4Q25 First Take: revenue met expectations while profitability fell shortAlibaba Group: 3QFY26 First Take: results reflect softer macro and investments in AI and QCJD.com: 4Q performance broadly in-line; toughest YoY comp for appliance sales now behindKuaishou: Accelerate revenue from AI, but also its costWeibo Corporation: Ad resumes growth, but profit margin declines due to reinvestmentKE Holdings: Shift focus to efficiency and service capability; profitability is recoveringBaidu.com: Key takes from investor meetingsJD Health: 2026: fast growth + reinvestment; key takes from investor meeting Exhibit1:China Internet comp sheet (as of March 30, 2026)China Internet comp sheet by sub-sectors 4Q25 earnings recap Exhibit2:we expect topline and bottom-line acceleration into2026EChina Internet sector – total YoY growth Exhibit6:Marginsare expected to remain largely stable,excludingfood delivery competition impactChina Internet (excluding Alibaba, Meituan and JD) margin trend Exhibit5:weexpect topline and bottom-linegrowth to acceleratein2026E, excluding food delivery competition impactChina Internet (excluding Alibaba, Meituan and JD) YoY growth Exhibit8:We expect eC/localservices’ non-GAAP OPM to improve in2026EeCommerce and local servicesnon-GAAPOPM Exhibit7: WeexpecteC/local servicesplatforms to accelerate toplinegrowth in 2026EeCommerce and local services revenue YoY growth Exhibit9:We expectKE Holdings’toplineacceleration in 2026ELife services revenue YoY growth Digital entertainment adjusted OPM Social and onlinead–adrevenueYoY growth Source:company report, BofA Glob