G10利率图表集：2025年12月

15 December 2025Date Global Fixed Income Blog G10 Rates Chartpack: December 2025 Mingyue XinStrategist+44-20-754-10002 Summary This report summarises key macroeconomic metrics and frameworks that we areclosely monitoring. We provide a regular update on the evolution of developedmarket(DM)rates markets in the recent past.Considering the uncertaintysurrounding trade and fiscal policy, we begin by comparing budget balances andcurrentaccount balances across major DM countries.We then analyse thedistribution of outstanding bonds by investor type to assess the proportion held by In 2025, most G10 economies' credit ratings remained unchanged, with the USexperiencinga downgrade and the GDP-weighted EGB rating seeing animprovement. Concurrently, with an increasing share of central government debtheld by price-sensitive investors, the 5s10s cash term premium has risen by over5bp across all G10 economies, notably excluding Switzerland and New Zealand. AllG10 economies' 10y yields are higher than at the start of this year, with the US, UK As we approach the end of 2025, we have updated the x-variable in our twin deficitframeworks to incorporate 2026's twin deficit scores. Under this new mapping, the10y ACGB and SGB now appear as the top two cheapest when assessed againsttwin deficit and twin deficit score. Conversely, the Swiss bond, UST, and JGB areidentified as the top three richest bonds relative to twin deficits. Given that the final2025 NIIP data is still pending, we are temporarily maintaining the NIIP mapping Twin Deficits Twin Deficit is simply the sum of the projected Budget & Current Account deficit ofeach country in the current year. Twin Deficit score is a synthetic weighted averagewhere we assign a higher weight to this year’s Twin Deficit (t), followed by graduallylowering the weights of the past five years (t-1, t-2, …, t-5) twin deficits and finally Source : Deutsche Bank, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg Finance LP, IMF Source : Deutsche Bank, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg Finance LP, IMF Source : Deutsche Bank, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg Finance LP, IMF Source : Deutsche Bank, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg Finance LP, IMF Net international investment positions (NIIP) Source : Deutsche Bank, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg Finance LP, IMF Source : Deutsche Bank, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg Finance LP, IMF*Sweden and Norway are proxied by SGB 2045 and NGB 2042 Source : Deutsche Bank, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg Finance LP, IMF Source : Deutsche Bank, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg Finance LP, IMF Government Bond Holdings and Free Float Recent market moves Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Market pricing of major central banks Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP DB 5s10s Swap Term Premium vs 5y5y inflation swaps Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Cross-market PCA Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Carry and Rolldown Seasonality Appendix A: Definition and methodology Twin deficits and twin deficits score:Twin deficits are one of our preferredmeasures of fiscal policy space. In addition to the conventional twin deficitcalculation, which is simply the sum of the projected Budget & Current Accountdeficit of each country data from the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO)database, we have also created a "twin deficits score”. For each year, the twindeficits score is a weighted average of the previous years' twin deficits. We assigna higher weight to this year’s Twin Deficit (t), followed by gradually lowering the Net international investment positions (NIIP):NIIP is a measure of a country'sreliance on foreign funding and, empirically, it is highly correlated with 10-year and30-year government bond yields in cross-sectional regressions. Examining morerecent movements, specifically those since Liberation Day, the NIIP can explainapproximately 80% of the yield change. This framework offers a novel descriptive Free float:Historically, free float is highly correlated with DB term premium. Wedefine free float as 100% minus the proportion of government bonds held by price-insensitive investors, such as domestic central banks, foreign official institutions, FX hedged 10y and 30y yield vs USD:We estimate the 3-month hedging cost using3-month forward points and prevailing spot exchange rates. These costs were thendeducted from the unhedged benchmark bond yields. For countries without a 30- Swap term premium vs 5y5y inflation swap:Empirically, inflation forward is a keydriver of DB term premium (5s10s + 0.2*2s). Consequently, we run a one-yearrolling regression on weekly data to examine current term premium pr