2026年尿素二季度展望：农需决定走势

2026****3181887/9.19%2.29%140/1760/250/1810/31840/1810/50%43%FOB600/21-22.5 2026 22/1840/++UR26051950-2000/ Z0021070zhangbo@nawaa.com 0571-89727506 1.2026............................................................................12.2026................................................................................23.........................................................................................................8 1.12026..............................................................................11.2/.......................................................................11.35-9/...............................................................................12.1.1.......................................................................................22.1.2.......................................................................................22.1.2.1.........................................................................32.1.2.2.............................................................................32.1.2.3.........................................................................32.1.2.4%...................................................................32.2.1.......................................................................................42.2.2....................................................................................52.2.3...........................................................................................52.2.2.1/............................................................................62.2.2.2/.................................................................62.2.2.3%..............................................................................62.2.2.4.............................................................................62.2.2.5.........................................................................72.2.2.6/.....................................................................7 1.2026 2026****3181887/9.19%2.29%140/1760/250/1810/31840/1810/50%43%FOB600/21-22.5 2026****1-41/-47/1-61/33+29/5-9****15-923/125-29/3-50/ Wind Wind 2.2026 2.1 2.1.12026 20243142024780/202424020241-122024 202520254577% 20262026627w 2.1.22025 数据显示2023年全球尿素总投产量接近760万吨，其中境外投产560万吨，全球总产能接近2.3亿吨。从新增产能的分布来看，2024年尿素境外新增投产为零。2025年的投产主要集中在俄罗斯、印度和墨西哥。这些新增产能的投产将进一步增加全球尿素的供应量，对于满足本国市场需求起到积极的作用。此外，这些新增产能也将对尿素市场格局产生影响。随着全球产能的增加，尿素市场竞争可能会加剧，价格波动可能会受到一定程度的影响。同时，中国作为全球最大的尿素生产国之一，其产能的增加也将对国内市场供需关系产生影响。总体而言，全球尿素产能的增加预示着尿素市场将面临更加激烈的竞争和变化。 2.1.2 2.2 2.2.1 3-56789-10 12.6% 20242022430702023442194000-4500600030-35kg40-45kg50-55kg 2025202420242025 2.2.2 45 7-812-1 202342540% 2025 1-11380400202025 3. 3.1 22/1840/++UR26051950-2000/ 3.2 1700-2000 / 1363100084008888910www.nanhua.net603093