ETS范围拓展：设计与政策挑战

Design and Policy Challenges Trevor Laroche-Theune,Theresa Wildgrube, andAndrésOlarte Secretariat of the International Carbon Action Partnership IMPRINT Disclaimer Cite as The ICAP Secretariat uses AI-assisted tools as partof its standard data processing workflow. All dataprocessing occurs within the European Union. Theservice provider does not retain data beyond thesession and does not use input data for modeltraining.Data Processing Agreements are in place T.Laroche-Theune,A. Olarte,andT. Wildgrube(2026).Scope Expansion of ETS: Design and PolicyChallenges. Berlin: International Carbon Action Acknowledgments The development of this report was led byTrevorLaroche-Theune,Theresa Wildgrube, andAndrésOlarte(ICAP Secretariat). The ICAP Secretariatoversaw the report, providing inputs and managing Any remaining inaccuracies are the soleresponsibility of the authors. Moreover, thefindings and opinions expressed in this study arethose of its authors and do not necessarily reflect We would like to thank representatives from thefollowing jurisdictions for their input andcomments:Mark Sippola and Rachel Gold(California);Cecilia White, Clay Clarke, AndrewGruel, Leah Martland, Megan McCarthy,andCourtney Wilson (Colorado);William Space(Massachusetts); Jacqui Ruesga (New Zealand);Piotr DombrowickiandIzabela Zborowska (KOBiZE;Poland);Julie Côté, Jonathan Beaulieu, Jean-Yves Credits Published by:International Carbon Action Authors:Trevor Laroche-TheuneAndrés Olarte Title:Scope Expansion of ETS: Design and Policy Copyediting byPhilippa Nuttall Date: 2026-03-11 © 2026ICAP (International Carbon Action CONTENTS Imprint_____________________________________________________________________________________________2 Contents____________________________________________________________________________________________3List of Figures_______________________________________________________________________________________3List of Tables________________________________________________________________________________________3Acronyms___________________________________________________________________________________________4 1Introduction_____________________________________________________________________________________5 1.1Benefits and outcomes of scope expansion___________________________________________________51.2Types of scope expansion______________________________________________________________________61.3Purpose and structure of the paper___________________________________________________________7 2Design challenges_______________________________________________________________________________9 2.1Cap setting 1: Determining the top-up cap___________________________________________________92.2Cap setting 2: Adjusting the cap trajectory___________________________________________________102.3Interaction with price or market stability mechanisms_______________________________________122.4Risk of double regulation_____________________________________________________________________15 3Policy challenges_______________________________________________________________________________20 3.1Price effect 1: Price increasing for existing regulated entities________________________________203.2Price effect 2: Uncertainty regarding future prices___________________________________________213.3Overlapping policy 1: Inconsistent policy mix________________________________________________223.4Overlapping policy 2: Unnecessary regulatory burden for new emitters____________________24 4Results and recommendations________________________________________________________________29 4.1Design challenges and recommendations____________________________________________________29 4.2Policy challenges and recommendations_____________________________________________________30 Bibliography_______________________________________________________________________________________34 List ofFigures Figure 1: Strategy toolbox_________________________________________________________________________32 List of Tables Table 1: Interactions between the EU ETS MSR and California APCR and scope expansion______14 Acronyms APCRAllowancePriceContainmentReserveARPAuction Reserve PriceBECCSBioenergy with Carbon Capture and StorageCCRCostContainmentReserveCH4MethaneCO2CarbonDioxideETSEmissions Trading SystemEUEuropean UnionGEMMGreenhouse Gas and Energy Management for ManufacturingRegulationGHGGreenhouseGasICAPInternational Carbon Action PartnershipLRFLinearReductionFactorMSRMarket Stability Reserve 1INTRODUCTION As jurisdictions around the world set more ambitious climate targets, emissions trading systems(ETSs) are increasingly turned to as a core policy instrument to achieve emissions reductions. As 1.1Benefits and outcomes of scope expansion Expanding the scope of an ETS, creating a larger carbon market, can significantly enhancethe efficiency of reducing emissions(Edenet al., 2018).First, a broader scope allows for amore extensive array of ab